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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (16792)	2/2/1998 6:17:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

JT-Look at this on ASEA-on divergence theory with Wall street.Friday the street was down but ASEA did not take the short bait and rocketed I knew it coming academically and wrote this small post- To: +IQBAL LATIF (16577 ) From: +IQBAL LATIF Sunday, Jan 25 1998 11:14PM EST Reply # of 16800 Nikkei is firm and strongly up - have broken thru the 16800 area and now trading above 17200 a close above this will be a good sign- so has most of the ASEAN markets shrugged the weakness of Wall street on Friday- the cycle of back to back ASEAN - Wall Street instability on my opinion showing some strong signs of divergence it used to be so far weakness in ASEA contributing to Wall street selling or if ASEAN was firming up selling in Wall Street would contribute to selling pressures in ASEA- above certain key levels which I have been pointing out since long this relationship will give up one of this important level is 16800 on Nikkei- I will like to see now a test of 730 on BKX soon- I would think Wells Fargo to make agood run today along with other banking stocks Chase Manhattan and City alongwith Bank of New York remains very much a favorite for me- however my trade would be based on 640-650 puts and 730 calls- I will also be inclined to see a trade on SOX which should take 280 out decisively I would like to see a major resistance at 310 320 area - 301 will be a point but may be a good point to take profit and reestablish long on retracement at 290 area- I will see bonds rallying continue to soften as 'flight money' associated yield curve may come back at the long end to a more normal looking curve representative of the market. SPA is a great trade here 955 will hold and I will like this to take on once again 980 resistyance within next few sessions barring a major revelation on political front- I don't think market has so far fully provided for a major set back to Clinton Presidancy we may see political fall out to damge this market that is one out side factor which any prospective investor need to consider. DJIA my points remain to be 7785 area and 7850 area where we have seen DJIA faltering time and time again however if we see a rally in banking which may take BKX above 730 we may see DJIA comfortably set fro a close above 8000- that elusive 1000 on SPA will probably match with overhead resistance of 750-760 area on BKX- last time new highs will be areas where we may be looking at some consolidation of these markets bull trend- So far I think a close of TXN INTC above 50 and 80 will be a good signal MSFT above 140 looks good but underlying signals are well configured and much better poised to give me a overallcontinuation of trend above 955 on SPA and 1000 or say 992 range- we may see now 1000 test if 17200 is new support of Nikkei but that is going to happen after we have two good solid closes above 16800- On the downside watch out for a close below 937 now with kind of consolidation going on in ASEA it would be errorneous to continue to look at shorting at a much higher level I would rather look at 937 break as a bad sign which may take market to as low as 900 or even 890 level considering overall strength I would like to investigate further on kind of news on economic front or politcal front the two apparent threats I see may come from a NAPM number showing below 51 or as I have stated above political ramifications as result of some extraordinary problems but any such concerns would be visible on components charts much earlier that indexes as such major stocks performance should be of good interest I will like my major stock 10 of them to show good resiliance above key levels as we all know that markets need leaders and markets where some leaders are showing oversold levels are most dangerous to short - Lets keep a very close eye on BKX below 690 SOX below 258 and SPA below 947 such a close will pressurise the Global consolidation the phenomenon of divergence may unsettle so I need to be concerned on continued weakness below levels suggested if good news cannot lift the market thru key upside resistances than it is indicative of smart money anticipations.