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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (168142)	2/4/2021 10:50:16 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218646

Re <<A disturbance in The Force?>> Am thinking a bit early since my exits at various levels, iow not yet de-risked enough. But as there may be happening a crack-up boom, so perhaps any level is good level. I stay in watchful mode. Re <<Is BTC vs. Au a one-way ticket that depends on which one is on the high side of the teeter-totter? Could be.>> am coming to conclusion that it is not an either / or with gold, silver, bitgold, but an issue of blending and timing, and as all three generates not cashflow w/o unloading, need to consider cash flow in the same blend, for compounding in the meantime, re below, recommendation, throw away the plucking key bloomberg.com Cryptocurrency Hedge Fund Founder Admits to Massive Fraud Joel Rosenblatt 5 February 2021, 07:24 GMT+8 A 24-year-old founder of two New York-based cryptocurrency hedge funds with more than $100 million in investments pleaded guilty Thursday to securities fraud. Stefan He Qin was charged with duping investors by claiming he used a trading algorithm to take advantage of price differences for a number of cryptocurrencies, federal prosecutors said in an emailed statement. Qin stole investor money from his Virgil Sigma Fund LP, and attempted to dip into his VQR Multistrategy Fund LP to pay back investors in the first fund, prosecutors said. He admitted trying to steal from yet another fund he controlled to cover VQR fund redemption demands, according to the statement. “The whole house of cards has been revealed, and Qin now awaits sentencing for his brazen thievery,” Audrey Strauss, the acting U.S. Attorney for Manhattan, said in the statement. Qin’s fraud relied on misrepresentations about his investment strategy to lure millions of investor dollars into the fraudulent cryptocurrency firms, prosecutors said. Qin, an Australian national, embezzled almost all the capital from the Virgil Sigma fund to pay for, among other personal expenses, a penthouse apartment. He faces as long as 20 years in prison. “Mr. Qin has accepted full responsibility for his actions and is committed to doing what he can to make amends,” his lawyers, Sean Hecker and Shawn Crowley, said in a statement. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filed a parallel civil case against Qin in December. — With assistance by Olga Kharif (Updates with comment by Qin’s lawyers) Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE

To: carranza2 who wrote (168142)	2/5/2021 3:51:43 AM
From: TobagoJack	2 Recommendations Recommended By dvdw© ggersh Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218646

Caution advised ... Let’s go Crazy - There’s been a plethora of crazy stuff occurring across financial markets. Today’s Bits & pieces looks at a few of the things that have been going on in this increasingly weird world. “In all my 6 days of trading, I have never seen anything like this ….." Veteran trader’s mocking comment on the GameStop moves “Almost never does a stock trade more than twice its market value in a single day. It never happened in 2001, for instance, and never happened in 2003, and only happened once in 2002. It has happened 7 times this week already, and 20 times this month. In the past 12 months, it's happened 84 times, which is more than all of the previous occurrences going back to November 1998.” Axios.com “Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes a byproduct of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.” John Maynard Keynes “Most notable to me this week is the size of “Margin Debt to GDP.” Simply, this gives us a sense for just how much leverage there is in the system. Retail investors gone mad. Margin debt is good on the way up. Think of it as capital to fuel stock purchases. But leverage is dangerous and can unwind, by force, quickly. Margin debt as a percentage of GDP ….. is higher than the last two bubble peaks in 2000 and 2007.” Fund Manager Steve Blumenthal “Long-term investing is important because that is how I got this money,” 9 year old Jaydyn who made US$3,200 from his “long-term” investment in GameStop aided by his mother. “Etsy Stock Jumps on Praise from Elon Musk After He Buys a Gift for His Dog.” Bloomberg Headline. By the way Etsy is up 320% over the past year and currently trades on: PER 84x, PB 26x, EV/Sales 14x and a highly attractive EV/Ebitda 50x “Lofty valuations persist ….. as of end January, 47% of S&P 500 stocks had a forward PER >20 ….. higher than any level during dotcom era.” Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab Liz Ann Sonders via Twitter. I calculated the number for CLSA’s Asia-Pacific coverage and coincidentally the same percentage (47%) of stocks in the region are trading >20 PER. And on that front another calculation highlighted just how much market cap is trading at what I would describe as elevated multiples (>30x PER and >3x Price-to-Sales). The number is a whopping USD22.8 trillion in market cap. Within Global Listed equities with a mkt cap >US$10bn the combined mkt cap for those with: >3x Price-to-Sales >30x PER >20% 1 year return ….. is USD22.8 trillion Source: Bloomberg “Eye-catching action is visible across the Pacific. Shares in electric vehicle manufacturer China Evergrande New Vehicle Group, a division of the world’s most indebted property developer China Evergrande, jumped by as much as 67% after announcing plans to sell HKD $26 billion ($3.4 billion) worth of shares to an investor consortium. That brings the post-June rally in those shares to a cool 625%, leaving Evergrande auto with a $51 billion market cap. That not only tops the $44 billion market value for industry mainstay Ford Motor Co. but also the $28 billion market cap for China Evergrande, the owner of 68% of the E.V. hopeful, which has yet to commence commercial sales of its products.” Almost Daily Grant’s

To: carranza2 who wrote (168142)	2/5/2021 5:21:30 AM
From: sense	1 Recommendation Recommended By dvdw© Respond to of 218646

"Is BTC vs. Au a one-way ticket that depends on which one is on the high side of the teeter-totter? Could be." Everything is one sell and one buy away from being made a trading pair... just sell high and buy low... and get your timing right.. One of the more interesting examples of that from last year was a trade I pointed out between FNLPF and MAG... two companies with common ownership of the same mine. But with the differences between them they traded differently... allowing you to trade profitably by buying and selling essentially the same asset. Back then I showed MAG at $5 as the better pick... with Fresnillo at $6.50 less appealing... But as they got close to $10 they adopted different cyclic patterns... so trading in and out of one into the other made sense. Once the rest of the market figured that trade out it ended, of course, but I got three full cycles out of it... Now, today, Fresnillo is off its $17.50 high down to $13.50... and MAG is off its $21 high at $18... but trading the two as a pair would have doubled your MAG holding by the time it pulled ahead in the trade. This year I've found another trade that's even more true about... trading the SAME COMPANY as a trading group... just because the same company trades under three different tickers that sometimes have radically different trading patterns... with daily divergences often over 10%... Sell the one thats too high, buy the one that's too low... and wait a few days for the market to sort it out... without risking anything in terms of being out of the holding at the wrong time ? It's not that the market is not rational or inefficient... its just that it doesn't really care that much about a bit of variation... until it does... I suppose you could actively trade gold in an attempt to build your pile of bitcoin... But, I bet there are a lot more people trading bitcoin in order to build that pile of gold.

To: carranza2 who wrote (168142)	2/8/2021 6:44:15 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218646

Trade in context Re <<A disturbance in The Force? After getting kicked hard, regulatory risk made apparent by direct threats from Mme.Yellen, etc., it has stood its ground fairly well. It seems to be finding a level, price discovery progressing, leveling off. A bit more stable. And, most important, Au is getting kicked hard while BTC is not.>> Very clear. Did not bargain over GBTC, bought at the ask, at discount to close, so good enough for now ... Friend on Koh Samui hit 118M last night, and this is after he had exited with his capital by unloading 1K of 3.6K of bitgold