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To: JohnyP who wrote (66467)	2/8/2021 8:24:56 PM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 78691

Still cheap, but curious how do you end up with the $9 EPS figure? My forecast numbers produced ~$7.50 per share, but SIMO often crushes EPS forecasts, so I just bumped it up to $9.00 for that reason. $ 1billion sales 50% gross margin = $500 million gross profit $160m expenses (how knows in a few years, but they say they're already built to handle higher sales) 500 - 160 = 340m operating profit 11% tax = $40m tax 340 - 40 = 300m net profit 300m/35m shares = $8.50 EPS You could bump that up to $10.00 for the aforementioned tendency to beat EPS forecasts. SIMO's tax rate is often below 15%. SIMO's gross margins should rise a bit above 50% since the growth is driven by their higher margin segment (controller semiconductors) and the collapse / abandonment of the lowest margin segment (Shannon). And eventually there may be a premium for acquisition as SIMO is now a rapidly growing, highly profitable, high cash producing smallish semiconductor stock - they type that the $30b market cap boys like to gobble up with a 75% premium. I wouldn't be surprised at all if MRVL or AVGO bought SIMO tomorrow for $100. After a year or two passes, if the revenues appear as forecast, the purchase price is just going to rise. MRVL has about a 40x PE, so SIMO at $100 would be accretive to MRVL's EPS immediately, and MRVL makes enterprise SSD controllers. Same business, same customers.

To: JohnyP who wrote (66467)	2/9/2021 3:16:10 AM
From: bruwin	2 Recommendations Recommended By Lance Bredvold petal Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78691

Ok, so here's SIMO's 2020 Annual numbers from Yahoo. These are the latest I could find. Maybe you have a more recent report for their Annual numbers. So your forward prediction for 2023 is a Gross profit of $490 mil. ..... that's in 3 years time. So what's that in and Annual Compounded Rate ? ...... 490 = 260 (1+r/100)^3 (490/260)^0.333 = 1 + r/100 So r = ~23.5% The same order of magnitude "r" percentage value would be obtained if you based it on a current Net Sales of ~$539.5 mil. and your predicted $1 bil. in 3 years. So are you expecting SIMO's Net Annual Sales and its concomitant Gross Margin to increase by an ANNUAL COMPOUNDED RATE of close to 24%, bearing in mind that in the previous 3 years SIMO only managed a rate of (260.2/251.2)^0.333 = 1.2% ?? IMO, that would be "some going".