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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16809)	2/3/1998 12:52:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

On auspicious ocassion of SPA 1000-An event for Idea thread- A note of thanks for friends who helped me with one of finest runs in my twilight of career.The icing being I did it from 6000 mile away sitting in Pakistan on internet- distance is dead ad K1bo my friend puts it and long live America land of opportunities engulfing the whole world now. 1000 and a close above it- any surprises here? no not all it was clear even when we were touching the lows back in Oct-no big deal- it was 5200 versus 1000 on S&P now that we have achieved this 1000 and above I would like the following- A double close up here again. A short squeeze in case of a double close. Malayasia up 23% and all ASEAN markets turning around will give us a close above 1000 today it is a sea change the breakout in fact is there and we need to get full confirmation. My NAPM number gives me a non inflationary growth future and a balanced budget- I have no problems in seeing a possibility to go much higher for simple reason- I see a lot of room on top- INTC TXN MOT TLAB and banks can move higher- so will the broad market. It is move like yesterday you come to know of market prowess of experts and marked increase in specialised sales- a day before to go short because we had five failures at 992-980 level was a classical error and a clear sign of lack of understanding of markets- you just don't short the market making higher highs- moreover market has its own logic to get people trapped may be 8 to 1 e-mails favoring going short was hyped pessimism on SI alone but I am referring to gurus on the street who had inclination of a major reversal and market on Friday behaved in a manner to increase hopes of a move back to 7500 but it was not to be they got everyone in 'as habits are not on which market rewards' it is 'breaking of habits and higher risks' which differentiates a successful trader from a novice. In an oversold situation and on a break of major resistance chartists get bogged down and end up with bearish or bullish read but the issue is thumb rule one of trading 'if earnings are on course and fundamentals have not changed' much for what has been a regular feature of this bull leg anyone who overlooks this 'philosiphical reasoning' of the market is and will continue to make an error of judgement. The market on grounds of bearish reasoning to be honest with you should have taken out and broken 6900 with a bang remeber Brazil 15% down- now loking for lame excuses to 'blow' this market is not right approach and that is exactly my point- ride the leg up or down is my philosophy anyone ignoring this will only do it at its peril. Now I know it is fashionable to be skeptic and call for destruction but in my opinion it needs courage to be long in market where you are making new highs- skepticism is abound I just don't now a way to leg out of my core portfolio and to re-enter, the tax consequences for a US tax resident alone will make this exercise prohibitively expensive- my logic on my thread has been first- to avoid such block sales and to educate with very little I understand of global markets that sky is not falling- when I write about markets I think of my friend Bri sitting somewhere in Texas with his little children with a small Keogh retiement plan in stocks the last thing I want is to stir up his life and call for disasters- I go against convenetional wisdom stick my neck out every day clling levels defining new fronntiers on my small little nice thread and feel great when I see my friends were taking a lot of satisfaction that markets go no where they were not whipsawed- Confidence building amidst pessimism so my threaders may not throw in the towel. That is objective one identifying various breaks on up and down side limiting the potetial damage and containing the breaks within supports on that account we have been very successful. The second objective ias to identify key directional changes and raises voice of reason amidst all kind of noise again we have been successful in maintaining our key focus of a bull trend without being caught in double edged trade- to be long in core Keogh holdings and short in day trade- this is one key deduction from SP 1000 journey- in my humble opinion I look markets as a place where logic and reason should be the basis of your money making efforts the moment we overlook this and look at charts and other tools as single tool of examining market dircetion wwe get caught- number two lesson is what I have done impose big picture on charts not the other way round refine your moves but keep looking at big picture for a directional change. Complacency and habit formation are two extremely hurtful elements I see it happening all around me - when INTC was 70 people wrotye on this thread of gpoing long at 55 now how do you identify that here is a turnoing point- not with charts they give you a horrible picture smae with TXN at 397/8 that is my entry cost of largest position now again we saw extreme skepticism- charts never let you enter at lows as they fail to signal reversal- on SOX at 242 whe I indicated a reversal and also a break of 280 when I thought that it will hit 240 we saw sweveral examples of traders caught on wrong side of market. In my opinion this Jan was a classic example of once in decade money making opprtunity MSFT INTC TXN to name few out several touted here in last two weeks where break out were evident- It is a most diffcult thing to tread one's way thru mish mesh of markets when we are facing new highs to conquer but markets are fun to be benefit of hindsight is the biggest education and achieving my target of 1000 I will not miss to celeberate although everyone else may have seen it as another milestone. In my stay on SI I called this as "steal of the century' I will and have owned it so far - my objective is achieved it is not 5900 it is 1000 and now I mopve my new frontiers to higher and more better indexes I see something happening and I will dwell on it further- I think this thread will define new style of market reading and we will thrive to make this art of fundmanetal analysis at a reachable distance i.e. the Idea thread- I am happy and contented daggers may come out again but I will not let this unique distinction go unnotice. I thank my closest friends who in most diffcult of times supported me privately and publicly to give me strength to face and continue posting had it not been those numerous numerous lurkers and friends I would be a forgotten broken milestone - my deepest regards to my closest friends- it is you responsible for taking the best out of me if there is any.I assure you some time I use to be interrange short in between supports I never ever cherished or felt happy when markets fall however even if I did not have a trading long and market rallied it was ocassion like that I loved and felt happy- Personal profits aside for me market success is victory of humanity's progress over famine and disintegration. Please allow me in being geneorous to share some moments with friends on otherwise what seems to be a quite and infrequented corner of our neighbourhood- with love and humility and assuring you best for future- I thought always to celeberate 1000 whenever it closed above that- for me now a different ball game starts -up or down we are with the market. In your service- Your friend and brother- Ike Sorry for taking time-