To: elk who wrote (26745 ) 2/2/1998 10:59:00 AM From: VALUESPEC Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 41046
elk, discuss past performance as an idicator of future performance. Why not discuss what WCOM representatives have said about the collocation agreement? Are they saying it is a big deal? Who cares what the used car saleman and the used car lot owner say? valuespec.com @EDUCATIONAL/main.html How good have their past projections been? Aren't we at a slower annual run rate than the last fiscal year (1.7 mil vs 1.0 mil)? I think the field is great. It is the company I don't like based on past performance which I consider very important in order to establish the company's credility. If that wasn't clear before, I hope it is now. Regarding those issues, I discussed those I thought approprite, but I'll repost them for your convenience: ******************** Subj: Re: FTEL and WCOM Date: 98-02-01 15:24:16 EST From: VALUESPEC To: WPLM98A@prodigy.com Doug, I've taken the time to respond to some of your questions now. I hope this helps: <<To: VALUESPEC (26592 ) From: Doug Best Sunday, Feb 1 1998 11:58AM EST Reply # of 26629 Valuespec: I am beginning to get disappointed with your recent posts. I realize that you are much smarter than anyone here and that you put in tons of time to research this company that your are invested in. But your posts are becoming redundant and repetitive.>> Some portions are reduandant and repetitive. I apologize for that, but I have enough good new info mixed in that it should still be worth reading (like the earnings reports, Raleigh's past predictions, documentation and commentary on FTEL's likely IP charges per minute as expressed on SI, etc.). It is my assumption that what is really bothersome to the FTEL bulls is that we are producing hard facts to balance the unsubstantiated projections that may have helped to prop this stock up to its seemingly high valuation. Also, the bears are irritated by the name calling and intimidation that shows the other side probably can't defend itself by using facts as we, the bears, are attempting to do. <<All I hear is Intrine and "give me projections". Well, I am definitely too dumb to give you any projections. Frankly, we are waiting for you, as one of the leaders of this board, to provide some analysis for the future of this company. >> Doug, I am already on record as saying they won't break-even by the June 30, 1998, quarter. That is in stark contrast to Raliegh and elk who appear to be predicting a "storm of sales" soon. I think FTEL has little chance of ever making good money so what can I say about FTEL's future? <<I would appreciate it if you could begin your investigations with some analysis of the future of IT, the projected growth rates, some analysis on Franklin if it recieves X percent of that projected total, some facts and figures about per minute charges both nationally and internationally with some profit projections, and the advantages of co-location with a major carrier.>> You addressed many issues here. Many I don't need to address at this time; many I already have. IT future: Great future. I really like the field. FTEL, as I said before, is a peanut, IMO, and won't be anything significant. Projected growth rates: I believe some articles were posted on that. I accept large growth projection numbers. However, why even bother to address this when FTEL still has not produced the "storm" that they've been promising. IF FTEL receieves X percentage: If I could get everyone in the world to mail me a penney . . . What ifs are fun to think about but aren't really worth discussing at this time. Now, what has FTEL done so far? Have they met projections? Do they seem like a hype company based on past performance and press releases? I'd say they've constantly disappointed shareholders with their revenues and meet my criteria for a hype company since they have hardly any revenues or credibility based on the past. Facts and figures on charges: Today I already listed numerous projections of 7.5 cents to ten cents per minute for IP charges. That is high and not as competitive as it probably needs to be to ultimately compete. Also, the big companies will be coming soon as evidenced by the recent ATT article I posted and which was generally ignored. Collocation: I just posted about that today (are you reading my posts?). I plan to contact WCOM officials to see what they have to say about the significance of the colloation with them. I found it odd that a WCOM contact number and person was not included on the FTEL announcment as would be common with important announcements. I also was surprised that I wasn't able to find anyone's post by someone who did speak to WCOM. Did Raleigh never call WCOM? Doug, what I posted, for the most part, has been factual. I'm trying to stay out of the name calling that Raleigh seems to delight in. I really don't understand why anyone who likes FTEL would have a problem with me spotlighting its past performance, etc., if FTEL is such a great company. I hope this helps you understand better where I'm coming from, but I doubt it will since our views are so different and it will probably take a while for either of us to change. In the meantime, I hope we can continue to help each other have a broader understanding of the company, and agree to disagree respectfully until that day when /if our minds ever meet. Mike ****************************** I thought I addressed Doug in this private e-mail message I sent him (which he posted earlier) in detail. You don't have to understand everything about a car to know it isn't performing as expected. FTEL is not performing, IMO, as expected. Let's agree to disagree and wait to see if the "storm" comes in the next two quarters, etc. This will be my last post today on the FTEL thread. VALUESPEC