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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (168616)	2/15/2021 8:26:14 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 218927

I think we are in total agreement... or as close to that as anyone in agreement gets before digging deeper to begin discovering divergences. I agree commodities are a vastly better bet on future growth than "growth stocks"... and particularly those stocks being promoted now by the Wall Street Crowd's usual suspects. There is no shortage of companies promising massive increases in future output of new products to match projected future demand increases... but there is very little surplus in "real stuff" needed to enable making all that vaporhardware in the future. Nowhere is that contrast made more apparent than in the "divergence" between "green investing" and EV's in particular, versus our reality being oil based. Tech for alternatives is coming along... but not there yet IMO... so winning the bet for the future means... timing the trade right... which means timing the market. More on oil vs the EV's later... its what I've been working on this week. Then... look at those timing issues next... but, only after agreeing both that... first, there's almost always something going up even when everything else is going down... and, second, that the market TENDS to move as a whole when the market moves... so that even things that "should be" going up when markets are going down will tend to move lower in sympathy. Investors run in herds and, in spite of all the energy expended in trying to be rational in analysis... they act based on emotion instead... and thus tend to be an in-discerning lot in practice. What that translates to... is it matters more who the other investors are than anything else... on those days in the market when emotion tends to control prices. Penny stocks... by which I mean stocks priced in pennies per share, not those under $10, or under $1, but those under $0.25, under $0.05, under $0.01... They will often act as a refuge from craziness in the major markets... with some knowing players using them to park money away from the more real risk in a market decline... by taking "bigger risks" in stocks that are much better insulated from the crowd ruled by e-mo-tion more than just by the mo in momo... Anyway, don't have to look back far to see it... as that's what we were doing back in Mar 2020... I picked a list of gold and silver stocks... and a couple of oily issues. They were already down before the market dropped, and dropped further and faster with it... making them the best bottomfish to collect. Then, we were still in a down market for commodities... now we're not... so a few differences this next time ? Chevron didn't drop that much in March 2020... and didn't gain much since then either ? GTE dropped down to the teens... and now is back up over $1... at 5X+ still undervalued and heading higher ? Midstreamers imploded... I bought ENBL ENLC WES a few others... timing the bounces off the bottom... but held only OMP. At the lows it had a yield over 50%.... which looked secure to me. I bought more on Sept 30, when on a bad day it dropped below $6 again... now at $16+ it yields 13%... in line with or a bit more than peers. But buying them at the bottom... presumes you are at the bottom ? Before that... as the market rolled over, I was all in on SQQQ for a double and more... My best guess... had me thinking I'd be out by now. But, I'm not... yet. I am finding it harder to sit on my hands these days... but technical analysis of SQQQ doesn't make me want to leap back into it quite yet ?The analysis from Cliff High in his Woonomics video on Youtube is about as good and as well informed a guess as any out there... for a sequence of events and timing. Understanding how he generates his guess will help you better understand its utility... even if it will still be a guess... as not all guesses are equal. I agree with others that silver is today... perhaps not looking much different than GME looked well before "suddenly" going vertical. The pundits aren't getting that these "social" trades are anything but "sudden" ? But, I'd ignore SLV in considering that potential, and pay much closer attention instead to the physical shortage said to exist, now, in the vaults in London, as physical delivery dates near... with question marks around the ability to deliver... some saying contracts will be settled in cash instead. I hold a bit of physical, the first bit bought under $4 back in the 1980's. I own no silver stocks, now... but that might change this week... What I do note... is SLV is trading at a discount, growing again, to real physical bought and sold... and lags the SI=F Comex Mar 21 contract by $2.45 ? Maybe the issue between oil and silver... is only one of who manipulates the market, and who benefits from that manipulation ? Last week I studied charts... and determined the oil-silver ratio is now a more meaningful chart to monitor than the gold-silver ratio. Silver is more an industrial issue than a PM issue still... and there may be shortages coming near term that have a lot less to do with silver as money than as solder. PGE investors understand that better than others... as palladium replaced platinum in industry... a >5x now has it trading well above platinum. The funny part is... the high tech "green energy" story... mostly a "can't get there from here" issue already, is that even more so when tied to the competing NIMBY "green" demands between "make that stuff" and "do it without mining anything"... None of it will happen without new or better sources of minerals: Ag, Co, Ni, Nb, Li, and better quality graphite... but, note, the demand projections appear to depend on producing numbers in new tech products that are "can't get there from here" for other reasons. A market crash will gut those inflated demand expectations along with everything else. But, silver market manipulation isn't about industrial uses... rather than suppressing silver use as money ? We saw a burble in silver as Covid kicked in... and weathered it with a spike higher in prices... and a ridiculous suppression down to $12 after ? Perhaps we're going to see another event like that... a step change higher... with even wider premiums between paper trading prices... and physical delivery prices ? If the market doesn't crash... but continues recovery on trend ? Long oil and silver... waiting for the crash. Will the market crash in late March ? Cliff High thinks it might... others think maybe April ? I'd still rather own oil and silver shares now than high PE stocks earning nothing and needing to raise capital to survive for the next five years... before their high tech projects have a chance, but only a chance, of succeeding. Some of those might be worth scrapping off the bottom of the barrel once the barrels been drained... but not before.. Otherwise, the Fed projecting it will keep rates where they are... at least until fall... also synchs with a couple of other key timing issues in the markets... while rates at 0.25% until fall might make inflation real enough soon to matter to everyone... raising more than stock prices... but also raising stock prices. The only safety in numbers there is in the market... is that found in taking profits.