Re <<Trifecta betting today?
Stocks lower, Bonds lower, Dollar lower>>
As you noted, and yes, I did do some 'investment' that is game-esque waking up shortly after my midnight, giving expression to what I had been pondering whilst half asleep, and then rolled over back to sleep
Uncomplicated, fairly matter of fact, per lock in a room until decision, and only then allowed to leave
(1) Long PPLT (platinum) finance.yahoo.com so that should it go up more I have some paper platinum to sell, given that my physical platinum is not for selling. Perhaps commodity super cycle is on, maybe the trillion dollar Pt coin once more subject of dialogue, and who can know, they might invent a new and critical use of platinum. Besides, gold, silver, palladium, platinum, copper, iron, oil, ... what is the difference? Stocks can go to zero. Metals harder. We shall find out.
(2) Long MSTR (MicroStrategy) finance.yahoo.com but by shorting puts, for I love the insane volatility, can certainly use the premium of $100 per share. Should the trade go against me, likely able to roll and earn, earn and roll, making good use of the underlying BTC, the new commercial venture of MSTR. I like the CEO Michael Saylor, even as am concerned that he in fact, mathematically, is using shareholders and bondholders contributions to boost BTC, that which he holds plenty. Should he sell ahead or even contemporaneous w/ the company I would be peeved.
(3) Long BTCC, the "Purpose Bitcoin ETF" in Canada IPO thestreet.com , and me wishing to be participative, and perhaps by and by switch out of GBTC (a trust) into BTC ETFs (maybe USA shall approve one before the Feds smack BTC). Right now making not much of any difference as GBTC not sporting any outrageous premium.
The issue about the lower dollar is just one, a simple one, lower against what? Cannot be any of the other fiat currencies, and so that leaves either stocks, gold, or BTC, or any combination of the three. Which is cheap against the dollar?
(4) Long DRD Gold finance.yahoo.com by rolling short DRD February 19 Puts strike-10 into short DRD March 19 Puts strike-10 and collected net US$ 0.59 per share, which is around 6% of current stock price, a sort of pre-dividend dividend. Shall hope to again do same-same come March 18. Old fashioned and traditional investing. Gold might go to 1600, according to folks, and if so, intend to add more gold. Am bullish on QE, as well as borrowings, and taxations, and and and, and on infrastructure-spend that would herald in the commodity super cycle, a/k/a inflation.
(5) Shorted DRD Gold volatility and expressed pondering to do with about what if gold wiggles to 1600, and I needed to add more gold, and also, in the meantime, I need financing for my potential MSTR and BTCC exposures, so shorted DRD Aug 20 Puts strike-7.5, and shorted covered DRD Aug 20 Calls strike-17.5, and spontaneously created a synthetic volatility position of US$ 3.63 per share, representing 38% of the current share price, of a company that essentially is a block of gold devoid of debt and working to distribute dividends and premiums. I love DRD as much as I adore bitcoins, and as both are effectively free to near-free, both good.
Expect the premium to disappear over time, and certainly on expiration day, and able to trade out of either or both parts of the wager beforehand.
(6) Shorted DIA finance.yahoo.com by going long DIA April 16 Puts strike-280, added to pre-existing position by 5X, thinking that I needed the additional insurance coverage for the above positions and a bit more on top to profit from a down draft. Puts are cheap, and should be able to trade out of the position during the rough patch coming up
(7) So, yes, suspect continuing <<Trifecta betting today? Stocks lower, Bonds lower, Dollar lower>> per trend is friend, stocks wobble, bonds down, dollar droop, gold and bitcoin should be okay as a pair trade.
Back of mind inklings,
- vaccination turns out to be faulty, that shall be required every so few months, and in any case not at all effective yet another variant out of the blue
- wave of defaults and tsunami of insolvency requiring mother of all QEs
- election 2022 / 2024 gets tee-ed up 2021
- USA-China trade negotiations flair into rare earths war
- might have left out a few worrying, but above should do for now
 |
