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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (66572)	2/18/2021 5:15:23 PM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 78822

Go back 8 years and look at the price pre 10 for one reverse split. The stock would be $260/share Yes, I wish I had fertilizer prices back that far. I only have UAN financials and fertilizer prices back to 2016, which was after they made the untimely acquisition and fertilizer prices had already tanked. My thoughts (perhaps incorrect) are that if fertilizer prices can get back to their level when UAN was $260 per share, there's not much reason UAN itself can't get back to $260 per share, perhaps more. Simplistic, but why not? I don't think management is that involved or that much of an issue in producing commodities. They try to run production as efficiently as possible, and for the rest the company is dependent on the market fundamentals. Market fundamentals for fertilizer are evidently very very good. How long will that last is the main question. All the companies yesterday said 2021 looks good, and after that we'll see. share price falls from $240/share to $22.60/share. You are going to have to raise the dividend a lot for many years to get back your $240/share original investment. I also understand the past 2-3 years were multi-decade lows for fertilizer prices. So.......what would you expect the share price to do? I don't think management can do much of anything other than survive if the price of what it sells collapses. But we'll see. Lots of things can happen in either direction. But if things just go along in a boring fashion, I think it's easy to see UAN paying $6.00 per share in 2021, and perhaps a good bit more. And for all we know fertilizer prices may move higher? Or lower! Regardless, $22 seems way to low a unit price given the likelihood of positive developments in 2021.