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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blankmind who wrote (32876)	2/2/1998 11:55:00 AM
From: Jan Crawley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

I am watching ASND closely today. Have some room/cash in my portfolio and really would like to buy some ASND trading shares. For whatever it is; I feel that some short-covering are responsible for the gains in some of those sectors you mentioned. I think that ASND is only being traded by the traders right now - Do not know what effect tomorrow's CSCO's earning will have on the networkers.

To: blankmind who wrote (32876)	2/2/1998 10:33:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 61433

Data Networking and Wireline Equipment - 30 January 1998 2 COMNET Highlights Data Networking n Cabletron (CS, $14 1/4, C-3-2-9) Revenue Trends. Over the next five years we estimate that Cabletron will see a shift in its revenue mix in the following areas: 1) indirect channels will account for more revenues than direct sales; 2) international markets will account for more revenues than the U.S. market; and 3) carriers will become more important to their revenue mix. Table 2: Cabletron Revenue Trends Market or Channel 1998 2002 Indirect Channels 25 % 60 % End User 75 40 U.S. market 63 % 40 % International market 37 60 Enterprise market 95 % 75 % Carrier market 5 25 Source: Industry sources, Merrill Lynch estimates Solutions focus. Cabletron wants to change its corporate image from a "hot box" company to a vendor that delivers solutions. n Cisco (CSCO, $64, C-2-1-9) Cisco's Gigabit Switch Router (GSR) 12000 has been deployed at Sprint, UUNet, MCI, MediaOne and GTE (BBN), and we believe it has won out over Ascend's GRF at a number of these customers. The starting price for the GSR 12000 is about $19,900 and we estimate early models have been shipping for about four months. n Fore Systems (FORE, $14 7/8, C-3-2-9) OEM relationship with ODS expected. Industry sources indicate that Fore systems will be announcing an OEM relationship with ODS networks to sell their Infinite Switch product line. Distribution Channels. In recent months, Fore has signed Bell Atlantic and Anixter as resellers, and Access Graphics as a distributor. Computer Sciences and Lockheed Martin are other systems integrators selling Fore's products. Super regional VARs in the Mid-Atlantic region include Data Systems Marketing and Information Systems. Government Sales. We estimate that Fore has about 60-70% of the U.S. Government ATM LAN market. Fore's ES-3810 Ethernet workgroup switch is positioned as a solution that allows a cost effective migration to ATM backbones. The ES-3810 has 72 Ethernet ports and two ATM ports. We believe the workgroup switch has been displacing some competitors' shared media hubs at new customer sites, and that Fore has been using these opportunities to sell ATM LAN and ATM WAN products. For customers that need high-end systems, Fore will OEM ODS Networks' Infinite Switch, as it can serve customers that require up to 300-400 Ethernet ports. n General Datacomm (GDC, $3 7/8, D-3-3-9) Increasing importance of indirect channels. We believe GDC will rely more on indirect channels over the next three years. Table 1: GDC Revenue Trends Percent of revenue from the following channels 1997 2000 Indirect channels 10 % 50 % Telcos 50 50 Direct Sales 40 0 Source: Industry sources, Merrill Lynch estimates n Newbridge Networks (NN, $27 5/16, C-3-2-9) Carrier Scale Internetworking (CSI) is the Newbridge response to Cisco's multi-protocol label swapping (MPLS). CSI will be deployed in May-June 1998 at PacBell and Bell Atlantic. CSI is an open standards-based architecture for premium IP networking, and will use 3Com's CoreBuilder 3500, Siemens/Newbridge 36190, and the Newbridge Vivid CS1000. Wireline Equipment n ADC Telecom (ADCT, $17 3/8, C-3-1-9) We estimate that revenues at ADC Kentrox in the October 1997 quarter were about $35-40 million. We believe that Kentrox is one of ADC's most profitable business units. January Quarter. ADC Kentrox has experienced a weak January quarter for three key reasons: 1. The company is experiencing a cyclical slowdown in wireless infrastructure spending among its customer base. 2. Cisco Systems is building DSU capabilities into its routers, creating a competitive threat. 3. In addition, ADC Kentrox is experiencing increased competition. n Telco Systems (TELC, $11 1/8, C-3-2-9) EdgeLink100. At the conference, Telco Systems demonstrated EdgeLink100, a plug-and-play DS3 multiplexer which supports up to 28 T1s. The box is compact and cost-effective, with a cost of entry 20% less than its nearest competitor. The product will be available in March 1998, with a list price of $5,750. We expect the product to impact fiscal 1999 revenues.