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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (168788)	2/20/2021 11:06:15 AM
From: stsimon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218919

This will inevitably result in corresponding rise in Treasury rates Eventually, if it is sustained inflation, but in the meantime the Fed might just up the ante by moving from QE to Yield Curve Control.

To: carranza2 who wrote (168788)	2/20/2021 6:54:02 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 218919

I'm 100% into the market right now... That is... "into"... not "in"... I'm doing homework figuring out where I want to be positioned... what's likely to move first, fastest... and what's going to be the right place to jump and land safely, next... As in all things, market tests provide proofs... The old saw that "when the tide goes out, you find out who's naked"... is proving true now in many ways. New York and California aren't measuring up. And in result we see a massive influx of self imposed exiles showing up elsewhere... emigrants... leaving them in droves. I noted last summer that the real estate in western Montana and Idaho was on fire... because of the exodus. Florida is a clear winner... People are leaving New York FASTER now... and are not shy about why... because in Florida you can have a life... the kids go to school... you can go out to eat... and the virus risks are LESS... and it is that outcome, as a function of proper governance... more than "economic drivers" being considered in more political terms by those doing the maths and applying an understanding of political economy in decision making... that is driving the deliberate choices made. Results based on differences causing the shift. Hoperfully, they won't continue to bring their California and New York politics with them... as they are in Missoula... The "national" real estate bust... is a narrowly focused bust in over-priced excessively liberal urban coastal cities. Those bailing out are driving a boom in real estate elsewhere. There's not enough in Florida... so there's a construction boom ongoing. Real estate and construction stocks might be a good pick... depending on their location, location, location. Texas... has been a key destination for those bailing out elsewhere... but it has just been exposed as having adopted "woke" policy in energy... to the degree that the man in the boat on a lake is dying of thirst. Texas obviously should not have any issues with energy. That they have those issues... even in infrastructure that can't handle a bit of cold weather... is revealing of more than the corruption of the Railroad Commission... looking now like a parallel to that in "managing" the New Orleans dike maintenance funds. Texas's green energy policy choices now looking a bit too blue to be trusted... not just because of the cold. My guess is... that pairing of weather... and what it has exposed in mis-management... will only accelerate the impacts with a shift in focus from Texas to intensify the rush to Florida instead... where sane economic policy... is paired with even nicer weather... outside of hurricane season. The point of this... isn't as much about choices in real estate... as repeating a prior point that changes occurring in markets now... across boundaries in industries, and within industries... are unlikely to see "a tide that lifts all boats"... rather than a series of disruptions that sends waves crashing from one shore to another... Navigation skills and proper anticipation... keeping a weather eye... are what will get you through it... but you need the big waves to make it worth bothering to go surfing ? Pick the right times... pick the right places... based on the winds that are blowing... come properly prepared... and it will be a lot more fun.