To: DJBEINO who wrote (27567 ) 2/2/1998 10:41:00 PM From: Thomas G. Busillo Respond to of 53903
DJB, hack journalism is running rampant. Let's look at that piece:Today, shares can be had for as little as $35, a 63 percent discount. Boy, no hint of a bias there.At NationsBanc Montgomery Securities' 15th Annual Technology Week investment conference, held this past week, analysts were singing the praises of the semiconductor industry...."We believe semiconductor stocks will outperform the S&P 500 in 1998," predicted Jonathan Joseph, a senior research analyst at NationsBanc Montgomery, who covers several semiconductor companies including Micron. A Montgomery analyst singing the praises if the group. That's news? What, the firm's going to come out and say "yeah, we brought all you institutional folks here to hear stories from a group with think is heading south by the 2nd half once the Asian fall-out hits 1Q and 2Q earnings."? Another contributing factor for the higher chip prices that's being bandied about is that Korean chipmakers are shifting production into more 64-meg DRAM chips, which in some ways leaves the 16-meg market -- with its reduced supply -- wide-open for Micron. Scoop, you need to stop listening to those California dreamers and do your homework. The company came out last week and confirmed that it is still facing constraints in its test process, problems I seem to remember being discussed somewhat obliquely during the 4Q'97 conf. call. Does that equal "wide open"?Indeed, it's this scenario that has likely boosted Micron's stock price almost 40 percent since the beginning of the year Well, Scoop I suggest you wake up an smell reality. MU's stock has been boosted by repeated touts by Goldman/Abbey Joseph Cohen, a timely upgrade by Montgomery's J. Joseph, a ridiculously predictable tout by Joseph at his firm's conference, and other lessor players upping the stock.Appleton blames the Korean chip makers for the glut in the memory-chip market, And yet, wasn't MU the company that's been rushing in to fill in any temporary suspensions in production by the Asian players?"Their companies mismanaged the business and now we're going to save them," Appleton said in an interview two weeks ago. "Our tax dollars are being spent to put us out of a job." Steve Appleton could have change the product mix of his company. INTC got out of memory chips. MOT got out of memory chips. TXN has shifted its earnings stream towards more proprietary technology. NSM jumped into CPU's, adopted a system on a chip strategy, etc. The list goes on. What's MU's excuse? I hope one or two of the Committee members point out the fact that poor strategic planning by MU played a part in putting the company at the mercy of its competitors.With more of the chips making their way into computers, automobiles, appliances, digital video disk players, and a host of memory-hungry Internet appliances coming out, demand isn't the problem for Micron. No, Micron's troubles have to do with something that has plagued it for the last two years: Memory Price. Ummm...if this company wasn't so much of a one trick pony, wouldn't that statement be less true. Management decided to stay in this market and keep its earnings stream tied to this market.If Appleton can pursuade the U.S. government to adopt his way of thinking -- and allow the Korean chipmakers to remain on the ropes -- Micron could soon have its day in the sun again. Once again, Appleton is a poor choice of messenger when it comes to protesting bailouts. IMHO, the continued touting of MU by Goldman and Montgomery is a "bailout". Good trading, Tom