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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (66599)	2/21/2021 12:45:19 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78817

IF your forecast revenue for the quarter holds for the other quarters of the year Just to be clear, $110m per Q is not my forecast for anything. My rough modeling says that on $110m per quarter they can pay roughly $1.75 per Q distribution. Again eye balling it, quarterly revenues should be MUCH higher than $110m in 2021. ------ Lets compare fertilizer prices in Q3 2020 and today. UAN fertilizer Q3 2020 = $140/ton. Ammonia = $242/ton finance.yahoo.com With those prices in Q3 2020, UAN the company did $79m in sales, and the UAN unit price bottomed at about $6. The latest I've heard is UAN fertilizer is now $260/ton and ammonia as high as $525/ton. ammonia has more than doubled in six months UAN fertilizer is up 70% in six months. UAN is a bigger portion of UAN's tons than ammonia, but ammonia costs about 2x UAN. So I'm going to estimate their fertilizer sales are about 2/3 UAN and 1/3 ammonia. So, if the market fertilizer prices I've posted are accurate, and UAN can realize them ...... UAN's sales should reasonably increase by 50% or more. That's ~$120m per quarter. $140m is not out of the questions. $110m seems like a piece of cake. I'm not sure what I'm doing wrong, because the numbers seem too good to be true. Who cares? The stock should probably be trading around $60 while we wait to see what's going to happen, but it's not. It's $23.