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To: tekgk who wrote (13748)	2/2/1998 12:35:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 18056

I often think about Newton, too, and it bothers me that I am perhaps thinking that I am smarter than Newton, which obviously would not be a very smart thing to think. But poets did not fare better. Alexander Pope failed to get out at the top of the South Sea Bubble, after imagining himself extremely wealthy for a short time. If you look at the charts for 1929, you do see that the last big upward spike came after month so indecisive moves at what was already a very high level. I think I will be able to hold on through another big rise but I would rather not go through it. I mean, hold on to an essentially bearish position. But we might as wll be ready for it. The stock market equivalent of the Battle of the Bulge.

To: tekgk who wrote (13748)	2/2/1998 12:46:00 PM
From: vegetarian	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18056

Can anyone think of justifiable reasons for this rally? The only things I can see that have happened since last Friday are: -Iraq not yet attacked -Bill Clinton's troubles have not deepened further -Some Asian markets rallied quite a bit -Some weak economic numbers However, taking a cue from markets that have been in big trouble in the first place to adjust our prices does not seem like a wise thing to do because that may set a bound on how well these markets will do which is not pretty to look at. I guess the threats from Asian markets have been now dismissed by and large and the economic numbers are also no longer a threat because: -if we get strong economic numbers we says that is good because we will counter deflation secanrio with those -if we get weak economic numbers we say that is great because we do not have any thtreat of inflation And we rally in a frenzy.

To: tekgk who wrote (13748)	2/2/1998 1:50:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

tekgk: Nobody knows how far up or how fast. But when its over there will be a mighty big hangover. And a lot of smart people will not be able to get out in time. One area of the market which still may have a decent risk/reward ratio is the small caps. Russell 2000 up only about 1% today and still is 6-7% below last fall's peak. If this is the final blowoff the small caps will be getting a big play one of these days -- probably sooner rather than later.

To: tekgk who wrote (13748)	2/2/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

RE: "Can this market break the old 130% of GDP record set by Japan back in 89? I estimate this to be around 10,200 on the DOW." Excellent point. I've been struggling to find a "measuring stick" to compare the Japanese market in the 80's to the U.S. market today. If I remember correctly, the P/E's in Japan in the 80's were much higher than the current U.S. P/E's. (Weren't the Japanese P/E's in the range of 50 to 60?) Because of this, I decided that the P/E ratio is probably not a good "measuring stick" to compare present day U.S. with 1980's Japan. Your "130% of GDP" gauge passes my "feels-right" test. I believe the U.S. market is in a period very similar to Japan in the late 80's. I also believe that, in the future, we will go through a period very similar to the Japanese 1990's. The question is when? As you've probably figured out by reading my posts, I've been quite bullish for some time now. As a matter of fact, I am presently quite heavily overweighted in equities. At the beginning of the year, I projected a high of 8,450. It now seems that that projection may have been too low. Only time will tell. Given my belief that we may be approaching a blowoff top, I'd be very interested in hearing how you correlate 10,200 on the DOW with the Japanese peak at 130% of GDP. Thank you very much, I2