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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Serendipity who wrote (19928)	2/2/1998 1:06:00 PM
From: dwight vickers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

I wouldn't get too excited by dead cat bounces in Asia. They were down 60-80% in local currencies. I see that Wall Street is working hard on the "see it isn't affecting earnings here" angle. I can't imagine that anyone thought it would show up the first day. (week, month, quarter) Give it time. The games have only just begun. Dwight

To: Serendipity who wrote (19928)	2/2/1998 3:26:00 PM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42771

Seren: Thanks for the recap on the very high level of bearishness posted here and elsewhere. I have been buying more of a lot of things since that ugly day in late October. Cash levels recently hit a 4 year high. Newletters were piling over each other to define the exit door. Commentators on CNBC and elsewhere were certain of the markets continued weakness and eventual unravelling. It's been a bearish chorus for quite sometime..... Bottom-line: when you read, hear and post bearishness points of view - by definition, there is still a majority of players selling, getting out, etc. You can't make a top in this environment. The other key factor to consider is the enormous liquidity that's been injected into the world financial system since the Asian collapse. This money seeks out finacial assets first in the form of short to intermediate term debt securities. It takes 2-3-6 months for this money to find its way into stocks. We are now smack in the early stages of this money transfer. The other given which the stock market has not discounted is the fact that Greenspan WILL have to ease - much sooner than most believe. There is evidence of this easing - just looks at the open market operations. The yield curve is too flat right now - posing risks should it invert that's just unacceptable to the world financial system. You can call this a bear-trap or whatever, but I happen to think the market is just beginning to discount the tremendous savings which "Global Network" - read internet, intranet, extranet - technologies will bring to the bottom line over the next 5+ years. Look to more layoffs - at AT&T and elsewhere - and a continuation of this wave of consolidations among giant firms, etc. Middlemen everywhere are being rechannelled into entreprenuerial start-ups, etc. The Inc. 500 changes drastically every year. We are indeed in early stages of an information revolution that is bringing sweeping change within sales/marketing destribution networks across every industry all over the world. The resulting leverage in the growth of net profits per sunk investment dollars is going to be incredible. This is huge. The peace/recession dividend of the late 80's early 90's which allowed defense spending dollars to be channeled into bailing out the S&L mess is a spit in the bucket compared to this. This revolutions will keep an indefinte cap on inflation as employment rechanning becomes more of a given. Combined with the Asian slowdoan, we have more than enough reasons for the Fed to ease. This round of easing will be there for other industries in much the same way it was there to bail out the entire banking system while the intial rounds of corporate restructuring were taking place. Call it a "technology peace dividend" - fired by the incredible power of this emerging Global Network that will - believe it or not - play right into Novell's hands much sooner than anyone thinks. I am very bullish on Novells future prospects. Good Luck!