Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (168909)	2/25/2021 4:59:31 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 219609

Forests and trees... pair with known unknowns and unknown unknowns. "Demography is destiny" is perhaps not perfectly true... but it is not a lie... even if destiny also depends on other influences that are simply left out of ones equations... though perhaps not everyone's. "Don't fight the Fed" is prudent advice, but its utility depends on knowing for certain what the Fed is doing versus what the Fed is saying... as otherwise you can't tell if you're fighting them or not. Having an ability to understand, whether you follow what they do, or follow what they say... to understand why it is that the Fed does what they do, Including what they say as one of the things they do, and why that generates an immutable object... that one should not try to resist... still has to be considered in context of a world in which people are people, and do what people do, in the awareness that irresistible forces do exist... As long as the Fed aligns its immutable objects with the irresistible forces... the problem for investors is reduced to one of determining if they are lying, and what they are lying about, and why... But, if you recognize that they are lying, know what they are lying about, and understand why... you should also gain an awareness regarding whether or not the immutable objects do align with the irresistible forces... or are instead arrayed in some degree of opposition to them. Complexity ensues, as there is not only one object or only one force... but the differences between various forces and objects being aligned or not... should not be hard to recognize. That is true, for instance, either in the way that riding in airplanes traveling through smooth air gives one result, and another result if one encounters some turbulence... but riding in airplanes attempting to travel through rocks has other impacts. The alignment or lack of it matters... as does the nature of the forces and objects in question. The rest is a matter of degree. The last two weeks we've seen cases in point... as the Fed first announced there would be no rise in interest rates... essentially "for years and years"... along with no reason to be concerned about inflation... essentially declaring the near future certainly will be a golden era of free money and no inflation. Following which stocks and other things boomed as one might expect was the intent... when you goose the accelerator... and, for purpose, mention you are doing that. Tuesday: A Technical Set-Up for Precious Metals . Then, not ignoring the observation of the influence exerted on the trade this week... easily foreshadowed here before it occurred... and, in spite of that effort, still given rising concern with inflation resulting from the plan to goose the accelerator... the Fed rejoins its prior announcement of an inflation free golden age, by again doubling down on "there will be no inflation"... distracting people from the fact that interest rates are rising... which some may recall I noted here recently as what should be paid attention to... Wednesday: Wall Street finishes up as Fed's Powell soothes inflation fears The initial failures to understand the sources of the turbulence made apparent in "shoveling money out the back door" a year ago... were met with corrections that avoided the global economy attempting to fly through rocks... while also smoothing out the ride... at the tolerable cost of a lower dollar. But, that was prior to the Covid influences... new forces and objects... In that context... weave in what we do see happening in reality... that might be a better indication of what is going on behind the scenes than one might glean from any of what is being said in the day to day... the key impact of which seems it is to generate new and different types of noises now... than were at issue a year ago ? December: Is Silver Set for a Multi-Year Rise? . As background, recognize the chatter about "resets" is not close to being resolved... the chatter perhaps having nothing to do with plans or events in resolution... Those looking ahead to some magical reset... might benefit more from hindsight... noting that Basel III seems it has already long ago answered re some of those questions the markets are still being told are unresolved, particularly in relation to gold ? Basel III... back in 2011 (?)... converted gold from being a category of "other things a bank might own"... having no real utility on the balance sheet... to being a tier one asset... literally good as gold again... with nothing better than gold owned to shore up a balance sheet. And, from 2011 (?) queue a parade of ridiculous banking games... in which multiple and overlapping claims to the ownership of the same gold have been the primary feature. And, paired with that emergent behavior... in the airing of dirty laundry... a series of delays in implementing Basel III... evolving into implementing it incrementally... and in a way that is not uniform... until some future date when full alignment is attained... after which... maybe people will learn it happened ? I will note in that context that physical silver one might have purchased over the last few years... being bought on the basis of that amount of silver being equal in value to an ounce of gold... today, if sold to a real buyer in a real market... would have that same unit in silver buy two ounces of gold. Silver has doubled in value relative to gold in just the last few years... in part by silver increasing in value in dollar terms... while gold declines in dollar terms... if you prefer to see it that way. But, that doubling didn't occur before silver was "run up" (when charted on a gold-silver ratio chart)... to 120 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold... in the sort of spike you might expect to see on a GME chart... that allows shorts to reset positions from a higher basis... to recoup losses from a short squeeze by engineering a bigger decline from a higher peak ? Up is down and down is up... depending on your orientation... which always works in any environment in which the operation of gravity is suspended ? Or, it works until someone turns the gravity back on. And what should you expect until then... ? Basel III Could Be Gold's Best Friend :On the 28th June 2021 Basel III will change the spectrum of how Gold is valued. This event has been described by some precious metals analysts as the most significant in their careers. So what is it exactly, and how will it change the world for Gold and precious metals investors? In that context... look at your post, to which I'm replying... at the chart "A Brief History of Volatility" and ask the question as... which pattern on that chart does the current pattern most resemble ? What would the imperative be, as banks re-write the rules, in a world reverting to a gold standard... with the goal being to ensure the stability of banks... which has been "a problem" in the prior monetary era ? Alan... quit sniggering... Let Janet do her job... What would the role of crypto be... in an environment in which we see that all they do is potentially replace an overly antiquated technology base applied in ACH functions... the Automated Clearing House a thing not needing only one outdated functional mode of enabling transfers... What value would there be in transitioning from an era in which debt was money... to an era in which particular transactions are money ?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (168909)	2/26/2021 2:47:20 AM
From: sense	Respond to of 219609

"the beast is on your list" Quick glance shows a chart pattern very much like I used to notice in DRIP stocks... where the administrator of the plan would take contributions and buy shares for the plan... at the same time each month, whenever the contributions were made. Brokers figured that out and started front-running the administrators buying... causing DRIP investors performance to suffer as they continually overpaid for shares. But, whatever the reason, buying near the last trading days in the week at the end of the month... and selling at the end of the first week of the new month... looks like a statistically useful way to trade it. A dollar or two swing in a couple of days... leveraged with an options trade ? The options expire mid month... March 19, April 16, etc. Jan to Feb a $2 swing. Maybe it won't work Feb to Mar because of the mess in silver ?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (168909)	2/26/2021 6:44:34 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 219609

Naked short silver contracts... as the tide goes out ? A fascinating shift or two in the silver story today. I tend to like it when a bit of news emerges that illuminates things that, prior to news, were there, and seemed a bit off... and after news, suddenly, it all makes perfect sense. Goldman Sach's head of silver trading, Jeff Currie, was making the rounds on financial media the last two weeks... apparently desperate to prevent the success of the idea that a squeeze of silver market shorts could ever work. His hair on fire in a few instances, he clearly mis-spoke, and seemed desperate much of the time that he spoke, while never coming across as a natural public spokesman. Still, in some of that, given the awkwardness in presentation, I think the silver gurus took it deliberately out of context in order to facilitate mocking the message and the messenger. Currie dismissed the idea that the WallStreetBets crowd could succeed in causing a silver squeeze... that apparently his primary purpose in appearing... at one point apparently by claiming the size of the silver market was so massive relative to "the equities" that it was not possible. I think the silver touts took the words he used to mean "all equities"... a ludicrous proposition... when Currie likely only meant to compare the silver market to the particular equities to which WallStreetBets had already put the squeeze... meaning silver markets are larger than GME and AMC... not the NYSE along with the rest of the equities markets. But, Currie clearly was not an eloquent spokesperson for "there cannot be a short squeeze in silver" message... and that was not the only instance in which a lack of precision in his speech (being generous) worked directly and strongly against the intended message by clearly conveying a sense of desperation. Then, following the obviously contrived "hammering" of silver in the derivatives markets on Tuesday this week... the gurus and investors have all been watching as Thursday settlements arrived, and the need for delivery loomed... to see what that would reveal about the driving factors behind the trade. Today, we know the who, what and why. Bix Weir with Arcadia Capital explains it in this Youtube video: Goldman, Currie owe silver market an explanation about COMEX deliveries Seems the shared reason for Currie's crazed presentation and the "hammering" in the options market... is that Currie has his Goldman Sachs trading desk... NAKED short 2600 contracts... That position now requires they deliver 14,000,000 ounces of physical silver... which an optimist might hope is primarily owed to Sprott's PSLV... but, which in any case, clearly does not exist as silver for good delivery in the COMEX vaults. The actual delivery date is set for Monday... and there is no way that can happen on Monday... but perhaps delivery could still be delayed as long as the end of March... only leaving a massive and rapidly growing physical shortage in the market... aligning it with a nice long runway pointing Goldman into the headwind of an accelerating demand... Expect physical demand to increase again next week... as this news gets out ? For reference... 14.8 million ounces... is the number of American Silver Eagles minted in 2019... and about half the the 30 million minted in 2020... while typical mintage has ranged from 30 up to 47 million recently, suppressed for some reason to around 15 million in 2017-2019. That 14 million ounces... is about 396.8934357 metric tons... versus annual global production of around 25,000 metric tons. Only about 1.58% of global production... so that shouldn't be a problem to deliver... IF YOU HAVE IT... And why would you be selling it if you don't have it ? But with market demand skyrocketing recently... on the back of an awakening investment demand... there is no surplus physical in the market to "shake loose" to cover Goldman's badly timed risk taking... leaving the bet entirely dependent on the expectation that those owning the contracts would not stand for delivery... rather than settle for cash at the "hammered down" price generated in the options market manipulation. I wonder... if perhaps that has something to do with the Treasury today quite suddenly and unexpectedly announcing it is closing the Mint to facilitate upgrades ? The video talks about it... I couldn't find any news about it anywhere else. How long would it take to convert Sunshine planchets back into bars ?