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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: qdog who wrote (7870)	2/2/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

qdog - OT MSFT, is the standard, because they own and control the O/S. It a bit difeerent than what is going on in telecommunications. The point is that standards, as set by some monolithic organization, often open up competition more than they close it out. Some of the many examples are TV broadcasting, radio broadcasting, electrical power distribution, operating systems interfaces, ... . It is for precisely these reasons that Microsoft is scared to death (almost literally) of Java. Of course it is hard to judge at what point this trade off occurs. But, I agree with you it would be better if some international body made the decision instead of a purely European agency. The best that can be said is that they invited the Japanese in, and that they are just stepping into the void created by the fact that the international bodies seem so slow to act. Clark

To: qdog who wrote (7870)	2/2/1998 11:04:00 PM
From: Asterisk	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

Rant on. The main problem that I see is one that my friend brought home to me. Should Ericcson be rewarded for waiting until they could get their license through ETSI? There are companies that have been there from the beginning (MOT,LU). Should these companies that showed an early faith not only in CDMA but in QCOM be put at the same level as Ericcson? I don't think so! If they want to buy their way in now that CDMA has been proven, and is showing its worth then they can kiss QCOM's feet, back up the dump truck full of money, and get it over with. Before someone sends the inevitable flame, understand what I am saying, the fact that Ericcson not only didn't buy in but actually was putting out misleading propaganda in no way enters this decision. A license for technology can be thought of as stock in a company. If you show up when a company offers its IPO, and you buy some then in ten years you have a chance to either be a millionaire, a chump, or to break even. The same thing happened with MOT and LU. They saw that CDMA had possiblities and they bought a license from QCOM to use their patents. Ericcson, along with some others, decided to sit and wait to see what all the ruckus was about. Finally Nokia, Samsung, LG, ad nauseum, saw the same possiblities. They paid a little higher price. Ericcson still sat. Finally Ericcson woke one morning, read the paper and decided it was time to act. They went to court and to the press. They went to court to slow QCOM (the leader of the new IS-95 pack) down. They went to the press to slander and mislead the public. This is a time worn and proven tactic, if you can't match 'em trade bodies and land for time. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. In this case it didn't. Now we are back to the initial decision. Do we buy in now, and start bailing, or go down with the ship and stick with our initial decision? Ericcson has shown that they can make foolish decisions in the past. HOWEVER I think that any company that is as big as they are has some presence of mind. They have to right? They will eventually see the folly of their ways and buy a license. Sooner or later they have to. There may still be some delaying tactics used, but just like "the Third Reich" in WWII a bad position will eventually crumble. The only question now is how much they will pay. As the current ETSI battle has shown, QCOM holds the keys to the city. If you decide to pay then you can play. If not then there is still a shrinking Analog market, and GSM will not fall totally flat for a while. It is possible to buy time in these markets until the next technology advance comes along, but you better be astute and play the cards right. Ericcson basically has only a few chances left, if they blow it and the CDMA market takes off fully enough then it is possible that QCOM, out of pure spite, could say "no". I doubt it but it could happen. Ericcson is playing a game of economic Russian Roulette. Either their decisions pay off big and they get a cheap license, if QCOM makes a mistake. Or they fail and have to pay out the bazoo for a license. There is another issue. Now that Ericcson has lost the waiting game, and as far as we know they don't have any IS-95 phones in the wings (which I REALLY doubt). They have lost an enormous amount of time in denial that the rest of the industry has been using industriously to build experience and product. So even if they enter the race now they will be hamstrung and will have to slog through a lot of basic stuff that the rest have already gone through. It will be interesting to see what happens. Rant off. Comments are appreciated.