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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Follies who wrote (169027)	3/1/2021 6:54:01 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 217716

Hadn't noted it. Worth noting, though. What's the nature of the period on the correlation ? It might make sense as Pt/Pd/Rd are used as catalysts in cracking as well as in catalytic converters... but it doesn't really seem like the uses would be tied to prices in that closely correlated a way because of that. The PGEs should lag oil demand if that were true ? The impact of 2020 not worn off yet... so no supply constraints. Perhaps if oil is just a better proxy for overall economic activity... than official lies... and the metal is following the proxy ? Likely more about "style" and who it is that's doing the trading in it now... Maybe making PGE's "super-silver"... pairing "high value" functions with industrial uses and scarcity... making Rhodium "super gold" with more value in industrial uses than real gold ? Don't see anyone talking about that potential... so worth paying attention to the patterns in correlations... to trade better. I do think silver is shifting now from properly considered in historical correlation with gold to a stronger correlation with oil... as evidence that there is a industrial supply shortage sneaking up on us... As low rates pair with the eventual end of virus issues... there should be a ramp into a real boom for a bit... even if fueled by more unsustainable debt... before there's that other "boom"... blowing the wheels off. But as that happens... it should start to show commodity shortages that we're three to five years away from being able to resolve. The green revolution will grind to a halt... for lack of materials... because mining is n't green enough ? I think the Tuesday rout in silver options last week... isn't done playing out yet. The price manipulation has failed to shake the physical out of the buyers hands... little guys mostly just ignored paper trade as non-participants... and bought more physical... all of it... or a lot of it... and its only becoming more scarce now as "someone" is sucking all the 1000 oz bars out of the market. Traders saying its the tightest they've seen the market in their entire careers. But, "they" can be relied on to just keep shaking the tree... even after all the leaves are gone... right up until the end of March... and before that we won't find out what the real balance in the physical market tied to the March contract actually looks like. And now we're onto the May contract... since April isn't a contract month... with the time element adding softness... but it should make the end of April interesting... while backing us up to potential end dates on those chart patterns in gold. Platinum and the PGEs have the advantage of not really participating in the monetary trade in the same degree, with the industrial uses putting a steadier hand on the volatility. Not Rhodium, of course. Some silver shares have spectacular volatility... so keeping an eye on the charts in March could prove rewarding. Was shocked to see Rhodium at 25K x 26K this morning... maybe a bit peaky... but probably tied to the re-balancing of Pd vs Pt... with Pt still having a lot of unmet upside... Pd probably levels off for a bit... while Rhodium continues to stun... as the use in practice is so small per unit in application... its not really all that price sensitive... which should be obvious from its chart... I do think people are undervaluing Elon Musk's asking "could you please mine more nickel"... but I don't expect his "asking" is what will be required to make it happen. Funny I don't see that many mining people talking about nickel or graphite... even as the boom in Lithium stocks consolidates ? But the 5 year Ni charts of price and supply are interesting. I have not yet fully considered how the balances might work... if nickel demand rises with EV adoption... and that makes more PGE byproduct... so the high % nickel players should do better than others... in the near term... while in the very long term the expansion of electric vehicles will eliminate the need for catalytic converters ? Still think the Arc Funds CEO a tad optimistic in thinking all EV within 5 years... which simply can't happen. A bigger issue still, I think, that China's not done growing... and India, Africa, and a lot of other places are just getting started... Dementjoe suddenly sees the need to secure critical mineral supplies ? Apparently thinks enabling mining is a good idea, again... while pumping oil to remain energy independent... that's different... that's still bad ? Hmmm. When will "can't get there from here"... finally occur to them ?