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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: carranza2 who wrote (169028)3/1/2021 11:15:40 AM
From: stuffbug  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218023
 
so many points just plain wrong in that post, I will simply point out a couple.
Profitable at $45 oil vs shale oil at $65.
Perform some research and view the photos of the reclaimed mine sites and compare with what existed 40 years ago - growing forests vs wasteland (how well do trees grow in oil contaminated soil?)

The Canadian Energy industry is the most ecologically friendly on the planet, bar none.
One intermediate oil producer even has net negative carbon emissions.



To: carranza2 who wrote (169028)3/1/2021 12:25:33 PM
From: Maple MAGA   Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218023
 
"Well, one would think that with the pipelines dead, the value of the underlying asset has to go down."

Not all Canadian oil production is heavy oil and not all Canadian pipelines are dead.

"A Calgary-based company, Pembina owns an integrated system of pipelines that transport crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids produced primarily in Western Canada, as well as gas gathering and processing facilities, and an oil and natural gas liquids infrastructure and logistics business."

www.pembina.com




To: carranza2 who wrote (169028)3/1/2021 7:07:01 PM
From: sense  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218023
 
Whether you like them or not... is one question.

Whether they're priced correctly given probable future changes in markets is another.

Killing the pipelines is demoralizing to investors... but does almost nothing to alter the real flows that exist now. What it does... is force Canada to remain a captured supplier for the U.S. with no access to other markets... so in addition to there being an oil sands issue in high production costs... there's also a Canadian oil price cap... But the transportation issue as a function of supplying current markets... just means the oil will travel on trains and trucks.... generating higher risks... instead of in safer pipelines. Stopping the pipeline... does nothing to stop the oil production...

"oil sands are the last place to be until there is a severe shortage"

Only, when there is a severe shortage... you're already too late on the trade.

The events of 2020 and ongoing... have us on track for a spike in inflation... oil production constraints by OPEC not mattering now... but if the virus surrenders and the economy ramps back up... you will see oil over $100 really quickly... The extraction technology has continued improving... some of the sands probably profitable at $80 now... all will be at $120... and oil is probably heading higher than that...

Im focused on mining stocks now... another inflation trade... which doesn't mean I think oil isn't going anywhere long term... if "sideways" for a bit right now... as OPEC balances current demand with current supply... in a way that kills off future supply... The virus drives the timing... I don't expect it to be under control before late summer... once actually functional vaccines become available.



To: carranza2 who wrote (169028)3/1/2021 7:29:26 PM
From: sense  Respond to of 218023
 
Specifically in ATHOF the bottom was on Nov 3rd at $0.08 currently at $0.34... still in "buy low" territory relative to prior peaks at $1.50 in 2018, 2016... or $17 in 2011...

But $0.34 to $1.50 is 4.4X
While $0.08 to $0.34 is 4.25X ?

And $0.08 to $1.50 is 18.75X ?

To $17 from $1.50 is only 11X.
To $17 from $0.34 is 50X.
To $17 from $0.08 is 212X.

So, when do you want to join the trade ?