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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stuffbug who wrote (169041)	3/1/2021 10:23:43 PM
From: sense	1 Recommendation Recommended By dvdw© Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218043

Point well taken. But, of course, not all sands are created equal... and some better than others... which is also true of the companies and their technologies. As far as comparable picks in oil... CNQ sporting a 4% yield... while my oil pick OMP still at 12%... CNQ from $8 in Mar 2020 to $28 now a 3.5X plus 4% ... while OMP was under $3 in March... just went over $20 today, a 7X plus 12%. So, a relative value argument. CNQ is not undervalued in the way I''m discussing... in the way that I'm always looking for value to "buy low"... exactly because its already making very nice money from better sands. I didn't just "happen upon" OMP... but rationally went looking for it... knowing how that trade would work ? And timed trades in and out of others, similar, that moved sooner... leveraging the trade along the way ? My other oil play this cycle was GTE... bought under $0.20... sold over $1... ample trading opportunities along the way. I don't think its done yet... still worth owning... I just think oil will "pause" at $60 here for a while... move sideways a bit... until the economy gets its legs back under it... The point is similarly relevant in mining... particularly now again in silver. I've mentioned it recently as the reason I found U.S. Silver back in the day... because I wanted the upside inherent in the price rise... in the swing leveraged by the equity... which you just don't get in a company that's already in the money ? The technical term would probably be "optionality"... looking for out of the money trades you think will be in the money in time... with an option that doesn't expire. More value change to generate benefit... in others changing perceptions... than there can be in simple agreement with the crowd ? I bought U.S. Silver when it was out of the money... its cost of production was $14... and silver was under $10 and falling... but I bought then (waited to buy then) both because I had faith that Tom Parker could get the cost of production down... which he did... and because I expected silver prices to bottom and then rise above $14 without too much of a wait... which they did... The result in the trade... is why I was shopping for "just out of the money" producers... missing nothing but a bit of help in the price... instead of the "best" or "lowest cost" producers ? An in the money company will benefit a little more from an additional price rise... but an out of the money company is a wasting asset... dead money... mostly worthless, a BK waiting to happen... when its out of the money... and then, suddenly, its worth a multiple again when its back in the money with prices rising. You don't always make the most money from the best stocks... when everyone in the market already has them over-valued because of their "quality"... ? You take more risk... but, you don't take stupid risks... and the returns are very much greater... as long as you do take "some" additional risk that you've controlled for by yourself in carefully planning the trades... That's not rolling the dice on hot stock tips ? But, you don't discard "hot stock tips"... rather than seek them... and then you just use them as prospect generators... to validate the story.... and if the story is good... find the best play to make a trade on that story... which often will be some other stock... that has the same story or better... only without the "hot tip" in a PnD ? I'm "a value guy"... which also requires patience, and a memory... so, following ALMTF since 2012 ? Leverage in mining... comes with making a discovery... perhaps Forum soon... again with a move from discovery to a serious development focus... ALMTF... and again with a transition from the costs borne in development to having a mine finally being put in production and paying for itself... Fresnillo/Mag ? Timing matters... but what you are timing matters as much or more ?