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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stuffbug who wrote (169056)	3/2/2021 10:09:31 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218050

<The purpose of my previous post was to address the glaring errors in the statements that were put forth regarding the Canadian Oil Sands - nothing to do with trading recos.> You replied to my post... the subject of which was... not CNQ... but others ? The oil sands issue... in the degree it differs today from what people believe is true about it... isn't others fault ? No one owns an obligation to keep current on a subject they don't have a reason to care about ? The point being... if the lack of understanding is causing a problem... whose fault is that ? Who does the PR (or not) ? << Timing matters... but what you are timing matters as much or more ? >> <I am an investor, not a short term timer.> I don't know anyone who would consider a one year or longer holding period "short term timing"... but, again, your reply appears to miss the point... in that investment REQUIRES properly timing trades... Investors are traders, too... having different time horizons not altering the requirement... either for timing... or selecting the best vehicle for your trade, over time, that optimizes the benefit of having determined there is a clock ticking that you can use to maximize a return. I don't select the timing... the market presents it... I see it because the timing is a feature determined by the events in the market... not some artificial time horizon... or some thinking that qualifies investments based on how old they are... instead of how profitable... when the divergences you have determined as the "what" have been resolved versus an expectation ? Ownership should have a purpose... a goal... utility... ? <In my book, GTE is a trade not an investment - take a gander at a long term chart.> I know it well. This is the third time I've owned GTE since 2007... from $1 to $8 and $2 to $9... The difference between a trade and an investment NOT being "an investment" being an excuse for holding something you shouldn't... given the functions the market does have... that you could use ? Would I be a better investor if I bought GTE in 2007 and held it since then... instead of selling it for an 8X and buying it again for a 4X and a 5X... so far ? If I'd just held it since I first bought it... I'd now have ZERO gain ? Moving in and out of a holding over time doesn't make you "not an investor" rather than "a better investor" ? Otherwise you're saying you "only own things that go up all the time"... or that your goal as an investor is not making money ? That I "think like an owner" in making my choices... doesn't (always) lead me into thinking the positions I take allow me to improve the performance of an investment by "fixing" the company... instead of "fixing" my returns by properly timing my buying or selling, or avoiding, of a thing... always working to choose a better vehicle to realize my goal... if the management or the market aren't helping me accomplish that owning X ? <OMP (Oasis Midstream Partners) is a pipeline company, not an oil producer. Their cash flow is highly dependent on the drilling whims of Oasis Petroleum, which filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection last September (and recently reorganized).> Hence, the reason I bought OMP and NOT the upstream OAS E&P... because while OAS, unlike, say, Antero et al... had committed lenders participating who ELIMINATED the entire OAS debt by converting it to equity... I avoided that risk entirely... but still used it to leverage my interest by buying OMP instead... while OAS was in BK ? Now OAS is the only oil producer I know that has essentially no debt... and how does that change things... when the upstream has no debt and can afford to fund operations from cash ? <The high dividend is expected to be cut sometime over the next 2 years due to declining EBITDA projections.> LOL!!! But, if you bought it a year ago when the yield was 60% ? Now, you've done almost 10X your original investment already on the share price... while getting paid a 60% yield for holding for a year ? In another 9 months you'll own it "for free"... IF you still own it ? When it stops making sense to own it.. stop owning it ? I don't control the pace at which events transpire... I only optimize my choices for the timing that exists as the market presents it ? And, like GTE... not the first time I've made that trade... with a two or three time line... because it is as predictable as clockwork... every time there is a market crash ? OMP was the best vehicle in that trade this cycle. It was work to find it. I'm not a "trader"... because I'm not trading stocks based on price charts, etc., rather than fundamentals, doing work, using my knowledge of the companies and the way the market functions... to own the right thing at the right time ? What "expert"/moron believes that OAS, being debt free just now, intends to leverage their position... into a brilliant plan to endure decline ? Did the analyst who made that call... predict the latest earnings correctly ? Do they (management, or analysts) know what they're doing... or not ? The market is full of idiots. Learn to avoid and ignore them. The "analyst" expectation, of course... also intrinsically depends on oil prices remaining static at that point in time ($45 oil) the analysis was done. What happens instead, if oil goes not to $60, but to $120 or $180 per barrel over the next two years time ? How will that event drive the OMP dividend in that time... given current flows and the open acreage OAS already has under lease ? If you don't know what you own... better than the people pretending to be experts... you're not "an investor" or an "owner"... rather than an uninformed bag-holder relying on other people telling you (acting in their self interest, not yours)... to point you to the bathroom inside your own house... because not living there as an owner... you don't know where it is ? When you know the company better than the analysts calling in on earnings calls... and know the market as well or better than the management... your buying and selling at the right times... is more profitable... and what you call yourself doesn't make any difference... if it has you make better decisions ? < In that same space Antero Midstream just cut its payout by 27% and now sports a more realistic dividend (9.5% yield at the current price).> I owned Antero for a trade, only, for about a month last year in April... although it was already clear it wouldn't sustain the divvie in March... But, compare a one year chart of AM with GTE and OMP ? Was that the right call, in April ? I didn't confuse it with OMP as a comparable value ? GTE has outperformed it... but it didn't in April. The timing matters in what you choose to own. Others, in that same time: WES and ENLC, ENBL... all did well in April too... but since April haven't done as well as GTE or OMP ? But, they've all done as well as CNQ... with a higher yield ? So, timing again... if you want to own CNQ... you should have bought OMP... and now you could sell it and own twice as much CNQ... even after taxes ? But, yours is a misread on the utility of AM cutting the divvie, too. Others out there, still, that eliminated the divvie entirely... which doesn't make them "bad", or AM "more realistic" because of the new rate ? What it does mean is they can better manage or shed the debt load. Those that eliminate the divvie will pay down debt faster... more as prices rise... and restore it at some point with less debt risk ? Because of dividend hunters proclivities... that qualifies those as "out of the money" issues I've discussed, today. Buy them as they get healthy... before they restore the payout... on bad days in the market... and expect the payout to grow all the more as oil prices rise again, and again ? As also the payout will grow at OMP with rising oil prices crossing some threshold ? Just as it has done in others, in similar circumstances, in prior markets after a "market event " does the same as what happened in March 2020 ? <Comparing CNQ to OAS is like comparing apples to Canadian diamonds.> Investing... isn't about marrying a company and being loyal to it... but is about making informed decisions about what to own... how much to own... when to own it... and when not to... making changes in your ownership over time... to optimize your extraction of value from the market... as your own development of judgement, as a result of experience and effort, enables you in making better decisions than others. The stocks you own... are not the family business... they will not succeed or fail because you buy or sell... but you will succeed or fail... based on how well you buy and sell... including the "what" and the "when" ?