Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (15330)	2/2/1998 4:25:00 PM
From: derek cao	Respond to of 70976

Teri, intel's new type of flash memory "strataflash" can store two bit data into one cell. developer.intel.com derek

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (15330)	2/2/1998 4:31:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 70976

Teri - You originally said: Most of my case goes back to if I'm a chipmaker and I can effectively increase my capacity by ~ 75% by shrinking from .35 mu to .25 mu, then I'm "sitting pretty" for the next year or so. Exactly the same argument could have been made at any time in the past. Every year there is 60% increase in transistor density, or in other words, just by upgrading it is possible to get 60% more 'capacity'. And we all know the semiconductor industry only grows at 30% per year, so therefore, by your argument, there should never be any need for new plants. However this argument leaves out the fact that the number of transistors on every component increases by about 60% per year. Thus, when you tack on growth of 30% per year you get a doubling of the number of transistors needed per year. So, in conclusion, 75% growth in transistor capacity is not enough to keep up with average growth. 75% growth is enough to keep up with demand only if the industry is in a excess capacity situation currently, or if growth in the semi industry is going to be minimal this year. I honestly don't know how to make this clearer. Of course, there are other factors involved such as capital availability and uncertainty, but these aren't truly part of the cycle, but more transitory impediments which should actually accumulate demand. AJMHO Clark

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (15330)	2/2/1998 5:33:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Teri - Maybe some examples will help. In '97 there were X million intel type microprocessors shipped. This year there will be only 1.2X processors shipped. Only a 20% growth rate. But this forgets the fact that last year's processor was the MMX which has 60% fewer (A WAG) transistors than this year's P-II. Thus there is really an 80% growth rate as measured by transistors shipped. So, 75% growth rate isn't big enough. Or, in memory. There were Y million memory chips shipped last year, and this year there will be 0.5Y shipped. An apparent shrinkage of the market. However, this is the year of the transition to 64M from 16M, so there are 4 times as many transistors per component, or a transistor growth rate of 100%. The point is that 75% sounds like a large increase in capacity, but the average growth rate of transistors shipped per year has probably been closer to 100% over the last 20 years. Clark