To: Bill Wexler who wrote (2194 ) 2/2/1998 8:01:00 PM From: khrnyc Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 7041
Hi Bill, Let's consider the following question: Why has the stock price fallen from the 30's in November to the teens in January? There has been no substantive information released by ZONA or by SGP since the announcement of their partnership (November 17) and informed investors were well aware of PFE's Viagra last November; so why the decline? The question is interesting to me because I think it bodes favorably for the stock price when additional information is released regarding vasomax (patent, NDA, etc..). Of course, while no one knows the answer for sure (well, maybe with the exception of you), I believe that this drop may have in part resulted from the use of the internet by Asensio and Co.. On November 18, the day after Schering made the licensing deal with Zonagen, Asensio had a post on Yahoo picked up from PRN Newswire. From Yahoo's news on ZONA you could directly hyperlink to his website where he had a strong sell recommendation and a summary of ZONA that I believe contained innuendo and a lack of understanding (at best) of Zonagen. The stock price, however, failed to move. In fact, by November 21, the stock price had climbed to 40.75. On December 11, Vivus announced a 25% sales decline. On PRN newswire, Asensio posted a notice to this matter. At the bottom of this Vivus post was Asensio's point of view of ZONA and again a hyperlink to his website. This time, I suspect, a lot more eyeballs made their way to his website (the average trading volume for VVUS is notably greater than that of ZONA). On December 12, 2,412,000 shares of ZONA traded and the stock fell from a high that day of 31.5 to close at 23. Perhaps some investors felt that Vivus's problems reflected on the entire male impotency market and so ZONA's share price fell as well. But, I can't help but think that Asensio's comments had some contribution. In general, the stock price moved down slowly thereafter until the recent move up. It is interesting to note that Vivus is not a company that is currently followed on Asensio's website and it is not listed in the research reports of the companies he follows. So why was he commenting on Vivus? One reason would be to get more people to his website. Furthermore, the Vivus post of December 10 has since been removed from his website. One should ask himself why Mr. Asensio did this. As I have mentioned in prior posts(Jan 23 and 27), Asensio's additional postings on January 13 and 15 neglected to mention important details regarding vasomax from the very sources he was quoting to make his case. Of course, these details contradicted his point of view. In short, Bill, there really has been no positive news on ZONA since you and Asensio have been trashing it. It will be very interesting to see what happens when the patent is granted and when the NDA is filed (both of which the company feels are forthcoming). I predict a very strong upward move. What about you? (Again, let's see if you can avoid the usual platitudes and accusations. My guess is you won't be able to provide a cogent contrary viewpoint. But please feel free to try).