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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (169326)	3/9/2021 5:54:07 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217605

I'd say... The expectations appear a bit too near universal to play out exactly as some want scripted ? Every story needs a plot twist. Getting all the horses into the gates... which ever direction the race is to be run... the high spirits are expected... and the bias in the $VIX and QQQ options trade is a pretty good bit of evidence that's what we're seeing... much more an exercise in anticipation than it is about herding cats at this point ? Not a whole lot of "wait for it" out there... Did note that a few of the gold royalty stocks seemed to have jumped the gun yesterday... and today the GLD spiked but has painted a lonely little doji for a candle... "Dojis by themselves tell us that there is indecision on the price but does not tell us much beyond that"... and that doji is not a obvious part of any new pattern... if an outlier in violating the prior pattern... still, its an up day, but with volume below recent trading... the last up day with lower volume on Feb 19... A similar pinch in the ADX on February 17/18 led to a similar $3 pop, even if on twice the volume and it taking two days... the second day being the infamous intra-pattern Feb 22 top... before leading us from there into lower lows... This pop did the same $3 move in one day versus a Friday/Monday move over two days, now popping up to almost to 161... still $9 below the Feb 22 high at $170... Waiting for it... The weekly charts don't help much. The best in them as GDX, vs GLD, is if the pattern the charts show in the ADX does inflect this week... then you might get a mini six week really like that from mid November into the end of December, before turning lower again. Not anything in the longer term charts suggesting a reason for a major bottom here... and not much suggesting the short term trade is at a bottom either... The pop thus far... clearly doesn't begin to resolve any of the issues about what happens to gold... if the market crashes in the next few weeks ? Looks more like its a parallel of a trade linked to the VIX... the "return to normalcy" paint job in the indexes today... leading to gold traders own "what if"... as, "what if we skip the potential for a market crash and just go straight into "market normalcy" only with accelerated inflation risks"? Hmmm. I don't see the market providing the legs for that to stand on... yet. The VIX... with a lower low tomorrow may resolve a lot of that... and, without it... a higher low red candle in the VIX or one that still says its a a repeat inside the VIX triangle... will make that doji in the GLD look more like Feb 19, only in a bigger one day move, on less volume, with greater indecision, likely giving us a Feb 22 follow-on event tomorrow ? The VIX the right place to be looking, it seems... to resolve the disparate directional issues between market indexes and PMs... in the short term. I still like "wait for it"... even while working on figuring out how to have some fun trading inside the pattern forced by the nervousness... as the bias in expectations does generate a huge skew in the trade... making it worth an effort in cherry picking a few chart trades in the cheap options... when the charts say betting against the bias and the skew offers good reward vs the risk... The gold charts still focused toward the end of the month and beyond to the end of April... as the VIX seems today that it is focused if not quite looking, at a point two weeks out for seeing any change in inflection... GLD and GDX paint different pictures ? No surprise. GLD saying "wait for it"... GDX saying it was last week... maybe... but maybe not a major bottom, just a continuation trade ? Maybe tomorrow will deliver greater clarity... but green days in the metals again today...