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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Grantcw who wrote (5183)2/2/1998 6:46:00 PM
From: craig crawford  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 10479
 
<< I personally think the risks of shorting FIBR overnight are above average compared to going short/long on other stocks >>

Of course you do. You are bullish on FIBR. I am bearish and think the opposite.

<< So then explain why the stock has more than doubled in the last month >>

Even the most worthless stocks can rise for short periods of time. The key is to follow the money trail. You have to understand that FIBR has supported it's business by issuing stock and forms of debt that are convertable into stock. You also have to understand that people who give FIBR money for preffered shares or warrants or whatever obviously want to make money. FIBR needs to attain certain levels for those guys to make money. FIBR management (any management for that matter) knows that they won't get more money from people through their various forms of financing if those people can't convert their preffered/warrants whatever into cash by selling. Hence you see FIBR climb it's way up. A convenient rise so people can convert and go on about their merry way. I would suggest that people are converting and selling their shares when FIBR gets above 6. Others are probably selling in the 5's.

<< Add to that the fact that the Forrester's Report mentioned Cisco might be interested in Osicom, and IMO you get a better than normal chance that Osicom is on the trading block >>

First of all I have never seen any Forrestor report saying this and second of all I wouldn't care if they did. Rumors get started by people that want to get out of stock. You know how many times A$ND has been rumored to be bought out? Shiva? Bay? If enough rumors are floated one or two are bound to happen, just enough to make people believe them all. It's simply a carrot that is being dangled in front of your face, Grant. Something for investors to hang their hopes on to keep them from selling.

Just because a company in real dollar terms is "cheap" and they claim to have some great product in an emerging industry doesn't mean they will get bought out. How much is someone going to pay? 10 a share? 20? I don't think so.

<< I'm not saying that Osicom has a good chance of being taken over soon, but I personally think the odds are better than many other companies out there. >>

Why? Because of some report? Have you actually read the report or have you just heard about it. Has anyone on this thread actually read the report?