To: David McCleary who wrote (26779 ) 2/2/1998 8:03:00 PM From: Paul Hofmann Respond to of 41046
David, I certainly welcomed your post, and I appreciated what you had to say. For all those "non-professional" (meaning: the little guys, like me) FTEL investors who may be worried about the current price, or worried about the status of the Nasdaq listing, or worried about...whatever, I offer the following investment primer. You may or may not agree with all of this, especially when it comes to the proportions recommended and the raw numbers. I for one don't agree with the stated sell points. Why? Because I've seen my holdings in FTEL decrease in value by some 70% at times, only to see my patience rewarded in spades later on! Holding onto OTC stocks is not for the faint of heart...but to me, it can be part of the challenge, as long as my DD is sound (which I feel it is in Franklin's case). But generally speaking, I think these principles are good ones. And remember, all...Franklin is a speculation (and I'm confident a very promising one, as speculations go). Yet I'll say it again--I'm in FTEL for the long haul (as an investor) and not the short (as a trader). Vic and I share this philosophy. Finally, I especially like the phrase: "If you are at all risk-averse, you will not be comfortable with investing in penny stocks." (I'm thinking of some prominent naysayers here...we KNOW who you are!) Warning: it's a somewhat lengthy summary. Enjoy, and hope it helps some of us. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Topics for Speculation Don Mitchinson [michind@cuug.ab.ca] Public Knowledge, Inc., 1996; 3 pages (Home Page Web Site). (summarized by Paul Hofmann) A. Speculation vs. Investment. The investor is usually in for the long term, at low risk. He has a well-balanced portfolio with the majority of stocks invested in blue chip or preferred stocks. The speculator is willing to take high risks for the potential of realizing higher gains. He invests by means of a structured system attempting to widen the gap between risk and gain. B. Six Rules to Remember. Tolerance to risk. Although the potential for reward is greater with junior stocks, the chances for losses are also very high. If you are at all risk-averse, you will not be comfortable with investing in penny stocks. You need to decide if growth is more important to you than safety or income. Minimize your risk. Before investing in risky penny stocks it is important to make sure you have taken care of savings and security first. Never put all of your speculative money into any one stock. By diversifying your investment money into several stocks at a time (3-5), you are minimizing your risk while increasing the chances for big returns. For this same reason, you'll want to invest about the same amount of money into each stock you buy. Know your broker. If you're going to use a broker, make sure he has experience in the industry that you are interested in. Watch out for promoters who may only be interested in selling as much of a stock as they can; you may never be able to sell the stock back if the price falls. Never buy penny stocks over the phone from someone you don't know, no matter how good the offer sounds. Know the company. A strong penny stock company will have: ú Strong management with years of experience in he company's field; ú A promoter with a proven track record of success; ú A record of improving revenues and profits. Sometimes a phone call can help assess the viability of a company. (For mining companies, determine the proximity to existing finds; the extent of the exploration program; and the production costs.) Know when to buy. With penny stocks, rumor has more value than news. If you can buy on the first rumors of good news and sell when the news comes out you can often make money on a regular basis. Another method is the Volume/Price buy [see below]--waiting for others to buy on rumors. In general, buy on a strong rising trend in the stock market and rising commodity prices. Know when to sell. This is easier to say than to do. Not all the stocks you buy are likely to go up. The majority will likely drop in price. Your goal must be to maximize your returns in the gainers and minimize the losers. Rule: Cut your losses. Whatever you decide your sell point is (10%-35% below your purchase price), make sure you stick to your stop loss decision. You should also sell if a stock has been trading at sharply higher volume for 2-3 days for no good reason--and when news or the results of a program are announced. C. Volume/Price Method. This is best described as "jumping on the bandwagon of others' knowledge." You try to realize gains in the short term by selecting stocks that both (a) jump by large percentages and (b) trade in high volumes. Choose stocks that meet the following criteria: ú Large percentage increase. Look for stocks that have increased by a significant amount over the previous day's close. ú High trading volume. At a minimum there should be 50,000 shares traded. ú Multiple transactions. Be sure that the price change is not the effect of 1-2 people only. The number of trades for this stock should at least be as high as the market average (no. of transactions / no. of issues traded) for that day. It is hard to time the high point of any stock. The 2 best indicators that a stock is losing some of its luster are: ú When the volume is high but the price is beginning to fall; ú When the gap between bid and offer is beginning to increase. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Obviously some of these points are more applicable to OTC:BB stocks than others. Still, these are good general principles I think. Shalom, Paul