To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (46644 ) 2/2/1998 7:08:00 PM From: Michael Coley Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 58324
RE: Dear Jock Come Lately, One amazing thing about this stock is how many people have absolutely no clue, but show up on a regular basis to share their "knowledge". Jock says:>> You people are amazing. This stock has seen its price go down 80 percent in slightly more than two and one half years << Go back to remedial math class--maybe you'll pass it this time. 2 1/2 years would have been 8/2/95. On 8/2/95, IOMG had a high of under 2 1/2, split adjusted. Since it's 9 11/16 now, that looks like a 300% increase, not an 80% decrease.>> and now you are going to tough it out even if you have to wait a year and a half for your stock to triple in price. Boy that's real investing. << Very few people are expecting that kind of return in that time frame. But it's done it in the past. Even with the recent decline, IOM has been one of the biggest winners in many of our portfolios.>> Folks get real. This is a commodity product with a transitional product that can be readily duplicated by other more fully financed competitors. << A commodity product? Do you really understand what Iomega sells? It's not hard drives. Readily duplicated by others? Have you ever heard of intellectual property? Patents? Zip, Jaz, Ditto, Buz, and Clik! are protected by literally dozens of patents. Sure, others could make them. Two others are ramping up to do so already--they're called licensees. More fully financed competitors? Hello? Obviously you haven't compared balance sheets with Iomega's "competitors". Iomega has $200 million in cash, and has been cash flow positive for five quarters now. Their nearest competitor, SyQuest, has $7 million in cash and has bled about $200 million in losses over the last three years.>> And what does the company do? It engages in a 100 million dollar campaign << You better believe it does. Advertising works. Just ask Microsoft, Intel, Nike, Coke, or any other successful company.>> to essentially correct an inventory imbalance << No, to decrease the time to standard. If there's an inventory inbalance, why do they have a backlog of $263 million?>> not spend the money on its new so-called cutting edge products that have been "delayed." << Products which will be released this quarter. Why would they need to spend money on them? I don't understand what you're getting at here.>> And upon whom do many of you rely? Some sociopath who calls himself Dr. Iomega. << I haven't seen one person say that they made a trading decision based on "the good doctor's" comments. (But then again, I wouldn't admit it if that was the case, either... <G>) Sure, some people may have been taken in by an imposter, but what does that have to do with anything?>> it's going to be awfully difficult to get many funds to buy in now that the stock is priced under ten << Yes, it will be. But we're at $ 9 11/16 now, and have been steadily heading back up over the past few days. I don't know if that trend will continue, but I have a hard time picturing IOM staying below $10 for a very long time. If you're so confident that IOM is heading down, please short it. We'll see who's right in six months, a year, or five years from now. - Michael Coley - wwol.com