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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Follies who wrote (169542)	3/15/2021 7:53:30 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 218835

Too soon to say what we see the last few is anything other than a move within the trend...but the chart still not looking like a bottom chart but a continuation pattern. On the GDX chart it held at $33 for two days... now up to $33.62, with resistance at $34.47 which pairs the prior high from Feb 22 with the downward trending 50 MA... Look at an OMP chart instead... the opposite in an uptrend holding above the 50 MA... on a chart that doesn't leave you guessing about what's going on ? But, the candle today ? If I were trading OMP on the charts to grow the stack, I'd sell it here over $20 and wait to buy it again at or just below $18. But stimulus checks are hitting now ? That might matter more than peering at charts for a while ? And in a crash, it will go down just like everything else... But, until gold stock charts look like that OMP chart does now... you don't have to wonder if you missed it ? Given the unique pairings in risks, right now... I'd rather miss out on trying to precisely call a particularly choppy trade bouncing off a very muddy "bottom"... than risk leaping in right before a market crash. I don't expect that crash will occur... while there's money the market that hasn't hit the floor yet ? But, once you see people bending over to pick it up off the floor ? QQQ chart... a mix of those two ? It's still tracking with the 50 MA like OMP is... but QQQ is now on the wrong side of the line... even if it does leap across for a bit with the stimulus as the fuel... there is no way that holds... But I also don't see good value in the options trade... will look at the VIX again, instead... Gold / silver have conflicting drivers... including that the interest in accumulation on the part of the pros... means "wanting it" forces prices lower instead of higher. Real shortages in physical... probably mean they'll not get what they want without crashing the market... "But... they wouldn't do that"... ? LOL!! They will. And if and when they do... gold and silver will crater... because we're in an asset bubble... and gold and silver are assets in a bubble too... in not over-priced like a Cathy Wood momo / nono pick I agree with Jack's hint today... that you can't trust the "deadlines" on Basel III to mean anything... or even that a date 3 months out, if it were carved in stone, is going to be enough of a lure to influence trading now... but, you should expect it to be used as a lure... Before we get to Basel III on June 21... to see if it is there or not... or if it leaves us wondering when it might be made to matter (even more as London isn't supposed to be covered or care about it until Jan 20220 ) we still have to get past the consensus in the market that we're long over due for a correction... higher rates working well enough in giving an excuse, etc. I'd not be surprised to see another run higher in gold and silver shares... being engineered like GME... just to enable them coming down again harder and faster... 1. Stimulus check pop... lasting how long ? Or, what if the checks don't get spent buying stocks ? 2. Market crash (with whatever they pose as the reason, rates, etc., not really mattering) 3. How low can / will it go ? The dollar will rise again... and when it stops doing that... its time. 4. Buy low... if there is still market there among the rubble... Meanwhile, I'm enjoying seeing the results of there being money flowing into the mining shares again... companies are reporting some interesting things from recent drilling... I continue to work on and refine my lists... with time, digging in a bit more... looking for mines with particular features now... Explorers with properties good enough in grade and extent with proof enough that they will become mines... Developers with properties being put in production now... just not quite there yet. Producers with strong operations... seasoned management... ready to become names others know in this cycle. There is no real reason to hurry right now... a new bull market in gold and silver might last three or four years... or longer... Odds are you will not get the big moves higher many expect... without the monetary "reset" issues and Basel III being a part of that... first... before the big moves happen... ? There is silver in the market again... 1000 oz bars, 100 ounce bars... kilo bars... a plenty. Supplies of the retail one ounce things still pretty thin... available at >$38 while 1000 ounce >$31. The price wars in paper vs physical are not letting up... so, even in a crash... gold and silver might outperform expectations ? That would be good to see... the effort in making a crash wasted... when gold and silver fail to drop ? Everyone in the market is sort of hunkering down, waiting for the stimulus checks to hit the market in a wave... estimates saying probably 10% of it will go straight into stocks and bitcoin... which is obviously not a basis for establishing a new trend... rather than a pop n a drop... What I'm noting in the emotion in the market is "more"... people who would normally just ignore a couple of percent point moves... are now wound around axles about the FOMO / FOLE... "did I miss it / hold too long... "and it's gone" ? There seems no middle ground... either we start a new bull market... or the market implodes ? The rotation into "value" did seem narrative that was working to enable an actual rotation for a while there... What you should probably expect to see given that dynamic in the market... is a bit of selling into the stimulus check cash... but probably not enough to stop the flow pushing one last rally toward a new market high... on the Dow...