Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (169563)	3/17/2021 12:36:16 AM
From: sense	Respond to of 217588

The options do have the advantage of allowing you to buy your "wait for it" now... along with good variability in the trade based on good days (buy the puts going into peaks) and bad days (buy the calls going into bottoms) in the market, adding some leverage. For now, the bias in the options trades is "up" (VIX, GDX) and not just a little... and, that's not usually what sentiment looks like at market bottoms ? The June 21 date seems to me to be too obvious... probably a lure... but too soon to see what the structure of the short term trade will look like around then... so I agree with the long dates on options in the gold trade... September to January. As the Basel III issue in the UK is in January... and that's where the trade is really conducted... even as the COMEX shifts its failure to deliver liability to London now... I think January makes more sense than June for a "goal"... at which point the trade might be expected to reverse direction... move higher... IF they are able to stick to the Basel III timelines this time. But, they've kicked the can down the road before. What's different this time is all the "reset" talk... conjuring remembrances of "never let a good crisis go to waste"... and posters from the 60's with a pair of hungry buzzards, one saying "patience my ass, I'm gonna kill something." But, then, even without that, it seems the situation would also anticipate a market crash before then... to provide the leverage in trades between now and then (maybe while spoofing the June 21 "has to go up by" date?) to enable them to accumulate the physical required to cover the shorts before being forced to cover them in a rising market... like in 2011. The move won't occur... until the banks interest is re-aligned. That's what the COMEX change to "deliver in London" means... not that "everything's great since we can deliver there instead" but "we'll just shift delivery to London so the Basel III rules changes don't really matter until January". How does that work to wipe out a 100:1 ratio in paper to physical ? Maybe... they could just quit shorting... and as the shorts go away... the ratio changes ? Of course, but there's no accumulation happening in that scenario. The old "make it up on volume" saw doesn't work when you're underwater on the trade... so, the trade has to be made "not underwater"... before that can work. So, it will be. Anyone believe "silver" priced at $12 in March last year ? No one who owned silver did... so the premium in physical is now a better indicator of PM market issues than the "price" set in the paper trade. What I have seen this week in silver is that the premiums are not dropping... but creeping higher again, now even in the larger denominations. One ounce is just scarce... retail is largely cleaned out... or you pay a lot more. At $40 - $44 an ounce you can easily get stuff... but mostly the higher volume production things. Some low end oddball stuff at $37 - $38. You can get 10 oz bars again, at $31 last week, $34 now... and you can get plenty of 100 ounce bars now, always rare before, at $31 and up... not at "the market price"... while the 1000 oz bars are now holding that premium too... down to $31 last week, back up to $35 this week... and they are disappearing again at that price. The biggest issue for buyers is that lack of availability is shifting the market to larger bars, which used to be ignored... How many 100 ounce door stops do you need ? Apparently the answer is... a whole lot more now than we used to need. So, I'm not at all a bear on the metals... I'm just a skeptic on the markets being anything other than rigged with the very intentional purpose of separating you from yours to benefit them. I do think... that is a reality that, with the calendar knowns, drives timing issues. Market crash first... like 2020 or bigger... hoping for a bum rush in sales of physical being bought high now, sold then at the lows to the banks at a steep loss... as "the reality of it all" sinks in. Will that work ? I doubt it will. Prices will crash... as they did in March 2020... but, that didn't make me or very many others want to sell my physical rather than buy more... only being more disappointed that "$12" was a fake price and I couldn't get any ? So, my focus, for now... is on parsing chart risks... looking to time and trade the crash, first, long PM miners after, for a long time after... the longer term options certainly a part of that plan... trying to avoid any limits in trading imposed by circuit breakers or "pauses". The bias apparent in the options trade seems as good an indicator of how to trade this market as anything else... against the bias... but timing trades only from the moves into the tops and bottoms before reversals. Expecting to see "whatever it takes" to maximize fear... since that's what the trade they want demands ? They've practiced this plan in Greece already... and Cyprus... so don't think they won't do the same to you ? Once the crisis arrives for real... then they'll use it to "reset" whatever as the cure... using the crisis as the excuse. Maybe that will be on the table in June... maybe not.... But it seems pretty sure they're going to have to pull the rug out from under you, first, before asking ever so nicely if you need a hand getting up...

To: TobagoJack who wrote (169563)	3/19/2021 7:21:50 AM
From: Rarebird	1 Recommendation Recommended By WalterWhite Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217588

All I know about Gold is that it is up against its downtrend line and it has traded pretty consistently with the movement in the 10 year bond. There is likely to be some quarterly rebalancing at the end of the month in favor of bonds so maybe Gold gets a bid. I think it is highly likely Gold and Bonds have peaked and have nowhere else to go but lower unless the Fed assumes yield curve control. I do think it is possible Gold can break USD $1000 and head back to $300 in the coming years, once a multi-decade secular bear takes hold. After all, many will need to cash out of their gold positions in order to survive. It is easy for me to look at gold or any other of my positions dispassionately because I don't like corporate America to begin with. When I tell you that my long and short positions are merely tools that I use for the sake of maximizing profit, I truly mean it. In spite of yesterday's down day (6 tenths of a percent), my portfolio is up nicely this week. I was long ACB a few months ago and made over 75% in 2-3 weeks. Now long MJ, which I see headed to $40. Was long GBTC a few months back at $32 and sold at $57-58. Now long from $43+. I am long a lot of dull, boring, unexciting stocks that are up nicely and have held up quite well. By instinct, I am a fanatic value player so it has been a good year so far. Went long BGS and NOC yesterday. A couple of more dull companies that I expect to be up sharply in the coming months.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (169563)	3/19/2021 7:54:57 AM
From: Rarebird	1 Recommendation Recommended By chip Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217588

Forgot to mention I went long FUTU at $41.15 at the end of December and made almost a 5 bagger. Message 33115904 Hong Kong has always been good to me. Many of those free spirited families who left Hong Kong to come to NYC in the early 1980's joined my tutoring service and learning center. They were proud Cantonese youngsters who hated China's guts. Their parents had the vision to get out of Hong Kong before China took over. Their children were placed in Chinese schools and most refused to learn Mandarin. Outside of some reformed Jews, the culture and spirit I look up to are the free spirited Cantonese. They question everything and take shit from no one. Better yet, I hold them in the highest esteem. The ones I encountered ( and I encountered many) in NYC were quite liberal and progressive. Their families worked real hard, many became multi-millionaires and spent tons of money educating their children and providing the finest culture for their children while living a very modest lifestyle in a humble and modest home with nothing fancy in it. They possess the secret to life. Their humility and modesty are quite the charm and got under my skin. They know what matters in life. Thought I would tell you the best of Hong Kong came to NYC in the 1980s and still lives there.