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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (2137)	2/2/1998 8:49:00 PM
From: tcarnes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

dear roger iam strong on tobacco right now i like bgl in at 101/4. the co. earnings off over 2$ a share last quarter. may be worth a look still in pnda. happy hunting tj.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (2137)	2/2/1998 8:56:00 PM
From: Robert DeHaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger my dart landed on CATP....I think its way way over extended ....Where'd yours land? good luck, Bob

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (2137)	2/2/1998 9:03:00 PM
From: Robert Giambrone	Respond to of 18691

Don't panic yet with your shorts. They are going to run this market up and sell when Greenspan speaks later this week. If the market keeps surging wildly all week you can be sure Mr. Greenspan will have something to say about it.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (2137)	2/2/1998 10:37:00 PM
From: Humblefrank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

I felt there would be a big rally a few weeks ago, March 15, and I posted it here. Then I thought about it too much and compromised with logic. I guess this proves that it is more risky to compromise with logic than it is to go with what you feel even if it seems risky! I expected a big rally and then a meltdown. It's hard to see what could tick off a meltdown now since all the bad seems to be out in the open already and no one is paying attention to it. But if you look at the market for the last six months the ups and downs are on a monthly basis. That lines up perfectly with options and it proves that NEWS HAS VERY LITTLE TO DO WITH IT. If this pattern continues what will happen is as we get closer to expiration any drop will be amplified by the covering of calls and so forth. This drop will be of great importance because it will break through the bottom of the triangle we have formed and which we in fact broke though the top of today. I would call that a false breakout which is what happened to the Nasdaq a few months ago. False breakouts are more likely if the triangle continues on too long and this one is six months long. Likely we'll have some bad news in Iraq or Asia, maybe some earnings' warnings and bam the melt down will really kick in as we get into March. We could recover somewhat in March and continue to have a rough year. I think more and more people are playing options which is leading to this type of market behavior. I kind of feel the market made an emotional top today with the longs so cocky and the shorts in doubt, but I think if this is really the top it will go higher yet. I hope it does and I plan to follow my feeling the next time I get it. If we make a double top on the DOW and then drop this could technically lead to a drop of twice the size as the last one. I'm basing that on Edwards and McGee technical anaysis which goes back to the 20's. That would take us down to 5,700 or over 30%. That's hard to swallow logically, but it may well feel right. Sorry if I rambled on here, but this is important stuff. The other option is the market calms down and doesn't do much at all, but that doesn't seem to be the case after today.