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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (4677)	2/2/1998 9:45:00 PM
From: Jess Beltz	Respond to of 10921

Ramsey, I feel that the propelling force in the market yesterday was simply new year's cheer and a desparate desire to see this be the bottom, even though I don't feel that it is. I feel that Indonesia is going to go down in flames (I saw a report on ABN last night that over 90% of the top 200 firms in Indonesia will have to restructure their existing debt, some of it involving total debt repudiation, and inflation there is going into the hyper mode) and that it very likely will have a significant affect on regional lenders, particularly in Japan, which is still in abject denial and face-saving mode. I think there will be a day of recokoning, and that the Indonesian crisis might force it to come sooner rather than later, which is my hope. More to the point, I think that the tech rally may be strong but of short duration, due to what I perceive as more trouble coming from Asia. I think the real, long-term upward trend is 1-2 quarters away. However, there may be money to be made if you can trade successfully, but I would be reluctant to put my money in semis on a long term basis just yet. jess.