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Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Technical Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (889)	3/19/2021 7:44:37 PM
From: Underexposed	Respond to of 914

Hi Johnny MACD usually uses 2 longer term moving averages while the Bollinger Bands, at least the way I use it, normally use shorter term averages like 20 or 30 day with 2 standard deviants as the outside envelopes. I developed my brand of TA since about the year 2000. I am quite confident in using it after evaluating each parameter for its usefulness. I don't use MACD in the traditional sense. The signal line is only useful IMHO with shorter durations like 5 minutes. If I were a day trader (and I am not) I would use a 5 minute chart with a traditional MACD... it is very useful there but width longer durations the signal lines can wander all over the place before being marked on a chart. But I found that the main MACD line to be very useful when used in combination with the Slow Sto and BBWidth. The parameters I use for each indicator are shown in the circles in this chart. The BBWidth has a standard parameter, the MACD is standard too except I remove the signal line...the Slow Sto is not standard... I found a 30 day lookback gave me a more stable and more easily read chart. This chart show a huge buy signal in November and smaller buy signals or continuation indications in Jan and Feb . A Buy signal occurs when you see a positive slope to the MACD and Slow Sto (usually the Slow Sto leads the way) the BBWidth slowly declines at first...The buy signal occurs when the BBWidth suddenly rises after rises of the MACD and Slow Sto A sell signal happens when the Slow Sto and MACD are in decline and the BBWidth suddenly rises as shown here in March of 2020. Now in truth, I would have been cautious when I saw the action of the Slow Sto before the decline. However as you can see the Slow Sto spiked to 20 several times prior to the plunge but the share price did not acknowledge it. Then the MACD started to decline that is again a cause for concern but it is the BBWidth that "Triggered" the Sell signal when it suddenly took off. The BBWidth is the trigger... the direction depends on the other indicators. There are other nuances in these charts using the 3 indicators to help you decide whether to continue holding a stock but this is enough for now. These are my buy/sell rules using this chart. Buy Signal - occurs when the slow sto has a positive slope followed a positive slope of the MACD and is triggered by a sudden rise of the BBWidth. Sell Signal - occurs when the slow sto has a negative slope followed a negative slope of the MACD and is triggered by a sudden rise of the BBWidth. I don't pay attention to minor rises there are ample clear cut instances to deal with. I have successfully used this TA approach for 15+ years...along with other charts to evaluate a stock later. UE

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (889)	3/21/2021 8:52:17 PM
From: Underexposed	2 Recommendations Recommended By Cogito Ergo Sum George Statham Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 914

Hi JC I decided to discuss my "trigger" chart more and illustrate some of its nuances. Each chart I create has different clues incorporated. They are not blatantly obvious but will become apparent the more you use this chart of mine. I will illustrate some of these clues in the following charts Discovery Inc [DISCK:NASD] This stock is a great performer!!! Discovery is the one of the largest global media providers with over 2 billion cumulative subscribers in over 220 countries. Its three traditional networks (Discovery, TLC, and Animal Planet) each reach over 85 million U.S. households and more than 200 million international subscribers. The top two networks (HGTV and Food Network) acquired in the Scripps transaction are available in more than 87 million households in the U.S. The international segment consists of national and pan-regional networks over 294 unique distribution feeds in more than 45 languages. I looked at its financials and frankly I was not overly impressed. It made more revenue in previous years but it took off after that 3rd quarter reporting back on Nov 5 and is still climbing like a rocket since. Let's look at the chart starting from the left Would you have seen that buy signal shown by the solid green line? The Slow Sto soared to 80, the MACD was climbing and then the BBWidth started to climb.... Now you could say previous to that the BBWidth also had some positive events...why are these not buy signals??? Well the Slow Sto and MACD were not in a positive slope back then so those BBWidth signals can confidently be ignored Next is the circle in the main chart.... look at the 20daySMA (dotted green line) .... it crossed both the 50 day and 200 day SMA's... Later the 50daySMA crossed the 200day SMA. These are not buy signals as such but rather they serve as confirmation that a positive move identified before is not a head fake . Look at the performance of the Slow Sto since November.... it is solidly above 80 with the exception of a couple of minor dips that quickly recovered. I am not in favour of so-called OVER-BOUGHT/OVER-SOLD designations to oscillators. The common chestnut is that on reaching one is supposed to sell in anticipation of a coming fall and take your profits....well look at the profits you would give up if you decided to sell in December !!! .... NO....the decision to sell depends on the action of the Slow sto and the MACD and BBWidth. A sell signal is given by a decline of the Slow Sto below 80 followed by the decline of the MACD and sudden rise of the BBWidth. There is no such sell signal for the last 4 months..... In fact there are 2 minor buy signals (dashed green lines) that are confirmations of good fortune for the stock price and could be used to add more stock if you wanted to. The way the share price hugs the upper bollinger band is very bullish. If it jumped high above that upper band that would be a time to consider selling as that is a rarefied atmosphere and a severe pullback would be expected. The purple line at the bottom of the BBWidth shows us when major changes will take place. As can be seen earlier the decline of the BBWidth did not affect the share price earlier. Nothing would happen as long as the MACD and Slow Sto don't reverse....Actually nothing will happen if they do reverse as long as the BBWidth does not suddenly go positive (more discussion in another chart The prognosis for this stock is a continued rise in price.... as long as the Slow Sto stays above 80 all is well. How long will it continue rising? This chart cannot tell, though it will take at least a month for the BBWidth to fall to that purple line. Other charts such as a P&F chart may give clues of a resistance point...that is why I use several charts in a complete assessment. The is enough for now....I will show another stock another day. UE