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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rarebird who wrote (169702)3/20/2021 6:57:55 AM
From: TobagoJack2 Recommendations

Recommended By
marcher
SirWalterRalegh

  Respond to of 217709
 
(1) Re <<Did I say China was communist? I said China was totalitarian and squashes all dissent that it deems threatening. Clearly, China is going through a capitalist phase. How long that will last is anyone's guess? Only Xi knows, I suppose.>>

(1-i) I may have misunderstood you re whether China is or is not communist.

Message 33249211

<<At this point, I am sure there are lots of people who use to live in Mainland China who now live in Hong Kong. And I am sure some are communist sympathizers and quite tolerant and forgiving of China's rule.>>

Message 32172709

<<China is a communist country playing around with capitalism on its terms.>>

Perhaps you meant that China is practical about -isms, in which case I understand.

(1-ii) China is not totalitarian, exactly, but authoritarian, almost certainly. Big country, difficult to organise and hard to point in any useful direction. Would not want to see China doing an India.

(1-iii) Capitalism runs its course as well, and am guessing that should have / have-not not preemted from going critical, can expect problems. One thing I give credit to Xi is that he definitely did crack down hard on corruption. Was and is necessary. Whatever it takes to do that, just do it, or all else lost.

Introduction of digital currency shall be a powerful weapon if used right, and a terror if used wrong. Such is the nature of technology.

(2) Re <<Median family income is significantly higher in the US than in Hong Kong with property values in Hong Kong at outrageous levels. $2500 USD a month to rent a decent apt in Hong Kong? With those prices I wonder what percent of the population is living on the Street or in shacks? Given the very wide discrepancy in median family income, I have my severe doubts whether a moderately middle income person can secure a loan for 1M-1.5M? Your definition of middle income sounds kind of elevated.>>

I was not defining middle income, but middle class, and had in mind what they owned as opposed to what they earn. Take an average executive assistant / secretary, with husband doing job as shopkeeper or computer fixing person, such family can likely sell home and tally up savings, and put US$ 1-1.5M cash together for immigration.

(2-i) HK Gini coefficient hkeconomy.gov.hk roughly equivalent to USA



Latest HK socialindicators.org.hk at 0.54
Latest USA pewresearch.org at 0.595 pre redistribution to 0.423 post redistribution

(2-ii) Median income HK at ~ US$ 42.6K per household Hong Kong wages could drop 20 per cent in 2020 for city ...www.scmp.com › ... › Hong Kong › Hong Kong economy



Median household income NYC at US$ 102K



... believe HKG / NYC would be about same after adjusting for taxation differences, and tack on healthcare costing.

(2-iii) Homelessness -





(2-iv) Home ownership





But, homes are much smaller, open average in Hong Kong even as much more expensive, and purchasing home generally require 50-70% deposit (meaning 50-30% mortgage)

(3) Re <<I think we need to define what the "greater good" is before we assign to the Chinese government a caring, compassionate nature. I would not confuse control with compassion and caring. In fact, totalitarianism tends to run polar opposite to caring for the general good - though the Perron's in Argentina proved the exception rather than the rule.>>

I define greater-good as the basics, be safe, work, eat, get educated, provided healthcare, have roof over head, be entertained, ... and such. Am definitely not saying such basics alone be enough, but that such basics ought to be available to most per none left behind. After the basics, add the goodies as people attain middle class-dom and redirect savings / excess income however they might.

China was in a mess for 200+ years, a revolution happened, people died, bottomed, revived, and now rejuvenating. No other government managed to do so much for so many within such a short time span from so deep down in the dumps. Just the facts.

(4) Re <<But China controls Hong Kong now and greater control has come over the years and more control is yet to come.>> Sovereignty happens, and people are free to decamp should they feel the need, and many do.

(5) Re <<I have heard from my customers that there were a lot of slums and poverty in Hong Kong before the China take over. Has that been fixed somewhat?>> There are still much poverty but difficult to say how much relative to anywhere else.

We as in my family basically adopt the attitude that the world is open to roaming, and youngsters ought to be able to roam, then decide where they wish to settle. Hong Kong is a good base for that sort of get-up-and-go, simply because Hong Kong is too small a place to just camp in without exploring elsewhere.

The links I provided re the Hakkas should give a sense of the free spirit of roaming and as you put it, the 'secret of life'.

For my kids, they are the 5th known / recorded generation of my line who roamed (born in one and live another place, across national borders), and I hope they shall also roam, but before roaming, they must be trained.



To: Rarebird who wrote (169702)3/21/2021 8:31:44 PM
From: sense1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Rarebird

  Read Replies (6) | Respond to of 217709
 
"China is going through a capitalist phase".

My view:

No. China has been shifting from a communist model to a national socialist model... with state interest in and control of big business... with a mercantilist interest in trade... and not from state industries to privately owned and controlled entities in the free market sense, who are trading in a free market. They have been on that trend for a long time.

But, that trend has largely been ended, already, under Xi, with a revisionist reversion occurring, only in the last few years, but with that shift now breaking the trend in direction that had China moving toward more freedom in corporate decision making. The shift from a more economically driven, decentralized model back to a model emphasizing a more centralized model with more personal control.,, means China is becoming more authoritarian... only now with a single strong man aggregating power making it not matter as much what the ideology is (said to be) as much as what matters being the particular bent of the person aggregating personal power... in a cult of personality. China becoming more like North Korea... obviously means the impact on Jack Ma (and others who have disappeared more completely) is greater than it is on the average citizen, as you might expect. But the era of potential for growing personal freedom in China, as China becomes more like Hong Kong, or as corporate decision making is liberated more, is also obviously at an end, far more depending on what you group belong to, and where you are, etc.

Xi having defeated the factions of his primary political opposition in the party... some time back... leaves China's centralized power being counter-balanced more by and between regional powers and bureaucratic powers. Of those, the military is the primary force that is still capable of directly imposing limits... as they have, recently... although without that providing any moderating advantages to the rest of the world, rather than imposing a framework in which that competition might play out... at great cost to others... as it means internal struggles will more likely play out on battlefields.

With that as a limit, China, today, is not much different than "becoming" Venezuela, under Chavez or Maduro, other than in the differences that exist in timing, in the time it takes to consolidate power, or in the differences in situation (size, inertia) from which the change was implemented. That difference in the degree of aggregation of power in a single person, works together with the difference in one person's ability or predilection versus another's... to foster detachment and whim... and an unpredictability that is not a source of economic advantage. So, in China, you're back to an era in which the personality quirks will matter more than the rational considerations... often enough... to keep things off balance.

China prefers to pretend that the trends enabled by prior choices... dating back to the 1970's.. are inevitably going to be sustained because "China, China, China"... but, team sports don't ever really work that way... as success in competition depends on cooperation... and removing others incentive to cooperate has costs.

That process already under tow... has China living almost entirely on inertia for now... which is not a prediction that anything will change dramatically or abruptly... while it does leave China again both more adrift in market relevance, and more dependent on the success and survival of a single person... which also makes new potential for discontinuous change likely in the near future...

"No difference between communists and kings... other than who gets to be king"... means the politics always devolves into the personal... and more mercurial... as the personality interacts with the aggregation of power in unfortunate ways, more over time.

All of which, being my opinion, should surprise no one...