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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (7895)	2/2/1998 8:57:00 PM
From: JMD	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Ramsey, you are now required to inform us all of SEA Holiday schedules and post party stock investment binges. What the hell are the Malaysians doing and why isn't the Q installing WLL infrastructure in that neck of the woods instead of whipping through the Congo? If the DJ popped 23% in one day, my HP says we'd be blowing through 10,000 or thereabouts. When these dudes throw a shindig, even the Irish would take a back seat. Talk about breaking the fast! Mike Doyle

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (7895)	2/2/1998 9:10:00 PM
From: JMD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Ramsey, thread: somewhat off topic: SEA Thing and Econ Nuts only***** I posted earlier today from a guy named Jess on the SI Semi Conductor "Blood is Running in the Streets" thread. Have to tell you, IMO, he is one very sophisticated dude. His thesis re: international monetary flows as a result of Japanese Central Bank actions is very credible. (The fact that it also supports Surfer Mike's "The Japanese Will Not/Cannot Fess Up in Any Reasonable Time Frame" is entirely coinkydink). Subject: Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! \| Previous \| Next \| Respond \| Remove Navigation To: Clark Hare (4674 ) From: Jess Beltz Monday, Feb 2 1998 6:59PM EST Reply # of 4677 <<<offtopic>>> Clarke, last year the Japanese Ministry of Finance decided to devalue the yen, for two reasons. The first was to stimulate their economy, which they hoped to do on the back of export trade to the US, and obviously, a weaker yen would help in that regard. However, a second and ulterior motive was to help out their banking sector, since lowering interest rates (the monetary tool used to devalue the yen) would also significantly lower the banks' cost of funds and improve their profitability (even if the banks didn't make profitable loans, they could invest in US Treasuries and chalk up the spread.) The improved profits were then to be used to help gradually offset the mountain of bad debt. There was, however, a disastrous and unforseen consequence to this action. Almost all of the regional currencies were tied (through the various central bank defense mechanisms) to the value of the dollar. Weakening the yen strengthened the dollar, and as the dollar soared in value, the regional currencies were less and less able to stand with it (with the Thai Bhat going first.) The result was the series of currency devaluations that brought all of the economies crashing down, in the end cutting off Japan's exports to it's SE Asian neighbors, which Japan can ill-afford now. Once again, however, and this is the main point, the Japanese government, in direct cooperation with the banks, was involved in a scheme (any scheme) designed to avoid recognizing the bad debt problem. jess PS - I should give credit where credit is due: much of the above assessment is Nobel Lauriate Merton Miller's idea. I listened to him give an address on htis very topic (the Asian Financial Crisis) last week. I happen to agree with him. jb. \| Previous \| Next \| Respond \| View reply to this message View SubjectMarksBookmark this Subject Return to Semiconductors One or more words separated by spaces: Subject Titles Only Full-Text Messages with Links <Picture> Send questions and feedback to webmistress@techstocks.com To link to this reply, use the following Location: Terms of Use Mike Doyle