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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (13804)	2/2/1998 11:26:00 PM
From: Richard J. Byrd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill: I always like to see you mkt predictions for the coming week, BUT your recent statement: < So far my "major" VIX indicators have been right 100% since I started tracking them as far as the major market moves > certainly was not borne out by Monday's 201 point move. Your VIX indicator, plus Barrons called for a down Monday and all week. I believe we are in for a lot more upside, after some brief consolidation and profit taking, no more than a 80 DJI retrenchment. This market is being driven now by NEWS and the absence of news. All looks peachy in Asia now; the President hasen't done a bimbo in several weeks (that we know of); the earnings season is almost over and we survived it. Unless one of these scenarios reverses or we blow up Iraq, we're in for a bull market and new highs for a month or so. But, as you always conclude - BWDIK. Keep up the good work.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (13804)	2/3/1998 5:00:00 PM
From: Jon Matz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Dear Bill, >>So far my "major" VIX indicators have been right 100%<< In an attempt to justify your statement I studied your "major" VIX posts against the DOW in two ways. First below is from the close level to the next major signal close level. 08/06/97 Sell to 09/12/97 Buy = 8259-7743 = 516 or 6.24% Down 09/12/97 Buy to 10/03/97 Sell = 7743-8038 = 295 or 3.80% Up 10/03/97 Sell to 11/11/97 Buy = 8038-7558 = 480 or 5.97% Down 11/11/97 Buy to 01/30/98 Sell = 7558-7906 = 348 or 4.60% Up Then I tested each from signal close to maximum change. 08/06/97 Sell to 09/12/97 Buy = same as above 09/12/97 Buy to 10/03/97 Peak = 7743-8190 = 447 or 5.77% Up 10/03/97 Sell to10/28/97 Drop = 8038-6950 = 1088 or 13.5% Down 11/11/97 Buy to 12/05/97 Peak = 7558-8210 = 652 or 8.63% Up Conclusion, if (Big IF because of today) we were to use this indicator exclusively, and things continue as they have, it could prove very profitable. Especially if one was to buy the Dow on up signals and short it on the down signals. This test includes approximately 6 months. Using the top listed figures which are more conservative you could have achieved a 20% gain, less commissions of course. That could become 40% year to year. I'm not even going to express what gain was possible if one were perfect using the lower figures, cause no one is, especially me. BWDWK (But What Do We Know), Jon