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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Follies who wrote (169754)3/22/2021 3:40:58 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217654
 
resting at just below 60K is fine. you deserve as much.

like mountain climbing, one stretch at a time

am in countdown mode for the dash for Caspers






To: Follies who wrote (169754)3/22/2021 8:44:50 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217654
 
BTC looking good compared to negative yielding sovereign and should have upside still ... zerohedge.com

Bitcoin's vs negative yielding debtMonday, Mar 22, 2021 - 8:39


Source: Quill intelligence
Bicoin remains one of the most crowded trades out there, although it has become somewhat "boring" lately.
As DiMartino Booth of Quill intelligence writes;

1, Negative-yielding sovereign debt doubled in just nine months in 2019 to a then-high of $16.8 trillion; though the Fed’s corporate debt bailout last March avoided negative rate adoption, it led to a fevered pace of issuance that took negative-yielding debt to a record $17.8 trillion

2, As seen by Bitcoin’s 2017 high amidst fears of negative-yielding sovereign debt hitting $10 trillion, the two assets tend to move together; that has changed since the Georgia runoffs, with $3 trillion in negative-yielding debt being erased while Bitcoin has more than doubled

Obviously there is much more to the bitcoin story, but watch the negative yielding debt closely...



To: Follies who wrote (169754)3/22/2021 9:27:30 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217654
 
Ultra bullish for BTC as Team China reacted to Team EU w/ same messaging as in Alaska to Team USA, and given so, likely that China shall cut BTC slack as well as allow EU citizens seeking tax haven to operate w/ less hindrance than usual.

Would suggest that the author is at the same time getting the wrong message, as well as engaging in wishful non-thinking

Because 1, the EU actions are (designed to be) ineffectual, and if deliberate, means EU go it the message, and 2, if the EU believed in the reports about Xinjiang, and still refused to visit, and came up with the list of sanctions they did, EU has lost its moral high ground.

After it first emerged last week that the EU was preparing the punitive measures, the Chinese mission to the EU posted a statement expressing outrage over the move, calling it "confrontational". It pleaded not to pursue such a dramatic step: "We ask the EU side to think twice," a statement posted to Twitter said.

With this significant action it appears that US pressure and spiraling relations with Beijing, focused heavily on human rights-related complaints and the crackdown on the Uighurs which the Trump administration had previously dubbed "genocide", are now for the first time manifesting in a very definitive way in Europe.



All ‘TianAnMen Square sanctions’ are in place as trade grew and grew since 1989. Where is the outrage?!

Watch & brief.

zerohedge.com

China Retaliates After EU Sanctions CCP Over Uighur Crackdown In First Since Tiananmen Square

Update (0910ET): Well that didn't take long. Chinese authorities have already retaliated to the EU sanctions... and threatens more (emphasis ours)

On March 22, the European Union imposed unilateral sanctions on relevant individuals and entities in China based on lies and false information under the pretext of the so-called human rights issue in Xinjiang.

The European side ignored facts, turned black and white, grossly interfered in China's internal affairs, flagrantly violated international law and the basic norms of international relations, and seriously damaged China-EU relations. China firmly opposes and strongly condemns this. The Chinese government is unwavering in its determination to defend national sovereignty, security, and development interests.

China has decided to impose sanctions on 10 persons and 4 entities that have seriously harmed China’s sovereignty and interests and maliciously spread lies and false information on the European side, including: Member of the European Parliament Petty Koffel, Geller, Glucksman, Ku Chuk, Lexman, member of the Dutch parliament Shelzma, member of the Belgian parliament Kograti, member of the Lithuanian parliament, Sakariene, German scholar Zheng Guoen, Swedish scholar Ye Biyang, European Council Political and Security Committee, European Parliament Human Rights Subcommittee, German Mercator Center for Chinese Studies, Danish Democratic Alliance Foundation. Relevant personnel and their family members are prohibited from entering the mainland of China and the Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions. They and their affiliated companies and institutions have also been restricted from communicating with China.

China urges the European side to realize the seriousness of the mistakes, self-examine, correct mistakes, stop pretending to be a "human rights teacher", stop playing with hypocritical double standards, stop interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, and stop on the wrong path Go further. Otherwise, China will make a further firm response.

Seems like global geopolitical tensions have notably heated up since Biden's admin took over?

* * *

On Monday European Union foreign ministers took a nearly unprecedented move in pulling trigger on sanctions against top Beijing officials for human rights abuses stemming from China's crackdown on its Uighur Muslim minority - the first such sanctions in over three decades.

"The ministers approved the travel bans and asset freezes on four Chinese individuals and one entity, whose names will be made public later on Monday, accusing them of rights abuses against China’s Uighur Muslim minority in Xinjiang," Reuters reports.

Prior testimony of a Uighur rights activists in European Parliament, via APIt follows a couple years of widespread reports of 'systematic' human rights abuses in the northwest Xinjiang region, where millions of Muslim Uighurs are said to be confined to Communist 'reeducation' and labor camps.

As Reuters emphasizes further, these are "the first sanctions against Beijing since an EU arms embargo in 1989 following the Tiananmen Square crackdown."

After it first emerged last week that the EU was preparing the punitive measures, the Chinese mission to the EU posted a statement expressing outrage over the move, calling it "confrontational". It pleaded not to pursue such a dramatic step: "We ask the EU side to think twice," a statement posted to Twitter said.

With this significant action it appears that US pressure and spiraling relations with Beijing, focused heavily on human rights-related complaints and the crackdown on the Uighurs which the Trump administration had previously dubbed "genocide", are now for the first time manifesting in a very definitive way in Europe.

Sent from my iPad



To: Follies who wrote (169754)3/24/2021 1:09:11 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217654
 
Re <<60k ... 57K>>

53K ... nothing matters because option gaming on, so anything can happen in the short run

Perhaps am wrong, but am not concerned about the intermediate term.

forbes.com

Bitcoin Is Braced For A Huge $6 Billion Price Earthquake This Week

Billy Bambrough04:20am EST
Bitcoin has climbed through March after its huge early 2021 rally came off the boil in February.

The bitcoin price has returned to near its all-time high of just over $60,000 per bitcoin, settling just under the psychological level.

Now, with bitcoin traders and investors searching for signs of what might move the market, a record near-$6 billion worth of bitcoin options are set to expire this Friday, March 26.



To: Follies who wrote (169754)3/24/2021 5:05:01 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217654
 
re <<BTC>>

positive news bloomberg.com

Tesla Now Accepts Bitcoin as Payment for Cars, Musk Says

Katrina Nicholas
24 March 2021, 15:17 GMT+8



The U.S. Tesla website showing Bitcoin as a payment option.

Source: Tesla

Having stunned the market with its audacious bet on Bitcoin earlier this year, Tesla Inc. will now start accepting the world’s largest electronic currency as payment for its electric cars.

Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk on Wednesday tweeted that “you can now buy a Tesla with Bitcoin” and that paying by Bitcoin will also be available to customers outside the U.S. later this year. He added that Tesla will only use internal and open-source software and that any Bitcoin paid to the company will be retained as Bitcoin and not converted to a fiat currency.

California-based Tesla disclosed its $1.5 billion investment in Bitcoin in February and signaled its intent to begin accepting the cryptocurrency as a form of payment at the time, sending prices to a record. The world’s leading EV maker made the Bitcoin bet after updating its investment policy in January to allow it to buy digital assets.

Bitcoin rose 3% to $56,108 as of 8:33 a.m. in London.

In addition to lending increased legitimacy to electronic currencies, Musk’s embrace of Bitcoin fits his maverick image. The billionaire has often tweeted about cryptocurrency-related topics and recently called Bitcoin “ a good thing” in an interview. Dogecoin, the once tongue-in-cheek digital currency, also soared to records in February after Musk, rapper Snoop Dogg and Kiss bassist Gene Simmons tweeted about it.

— With assistance by Max Zimmerman, and Sid Verma

(Adds Bitcoin price move)

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.
LEARN MORE



To: Follies who wrote (169754)3/30/2021 7:26:13 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217654
 
Re <<over 60K>>

Apologies. Closer, but not over, so over to your Team.

In time to balance out the cr@p performance of true gold

deribit.com



bitcoinist.com

Bitcoin Firm as Archegos Fiasco Raises Conflagration Concerns; What’s Next?

Bitcoin prices traded narrowly higher Tuesday as it attempted to offset profit-selling behavior against an ongoing turmoil on Wall Street.

The benchmark cryptocurrency surged 0.42 percent to $57,829 ahead of the London morning bell. Its modest gains came as an extension to a bullish session on Monday, wherein the price climbed 3.29 percent. That further marked roughly 16 percent recovery after Bitcoin fell to near $50,000 last Thursday.

Bitcoin maintains its short-term bullish bias. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

What Pumped Bitcoin?The latest gains in the Bitcoin market surfaced in the wake of two concrete factors.


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First, about $6 billion worth of options expired on Friday in favor of bulls’ preferred strike price target at $55,000. Second, it appears that investors’ bid for safe-havens surged after a large investment fund unwound billions of dollars in holdings, provoking concerns that global banks that traded with the firm could face severe losses.

The story erupted last Friday after Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley started dumping billions of dollars worth of positions in Chinese and US stocks. They did it on behalf of an undisclosed investment fund that had defaulted on its “margin call” — primarily a requirement to deposit more collateral against its trades.

That led to an epic whodunnit across markets, with Archegos – an investment group headed by Bill Hwang, a former Tiger management hedge fund manager with a history of wire frauds and insider trading, identified as the fund that caused the panic. On Monday, Credit Suisse and Nomura admitted that they could lose billions of dollars in the said fallout.

US Margin Debt is at a record level of $800 million. Source: Energy Funders

The Archegos blowout raised worries among investors: can this fund trigger a wider financial conflagration? The uncertainty pushed the US stocks — barring Dow Jones — lower Monday while the US dollar, which investors consider their safest haven against market turmoils, rose. Bitcoin appeared to have surged on similar sentiments.

“If the Archegos margin call on a $10B fund can send core holdings down 50% in a week, what do you think happens during the next market-wide shock when the record $800 billion in retail leverage unwinds,” stated Ross Hendricks, the vice president of EnergyFunders.com.

Price OutlookThe BTC/USD exchange rate showed early signs of breaking out of its downward trend channel. Since it comes after a strong uptrend, the range, which appears like a bull flag, expects to send bitcoin to as high as $71,000, as discussed in another Bitcoinist analysis.

Bitcoin breakout move pauses. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Conversely, if the price falls back inside the flag range, then it risks plunging towards the structure’s lower trendline. That would mean a dip towards $50,000, if not below the level.



To: Follies who wrote (169754)3/30/2021 8:51:22 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217654
 
Hmmmmnnnn 80K by end April sounds aggressive even if 60K by end of week entirely possible

by Pantera stock / flow, 62k < X <74k by end April

I believe stock & flow logic may accidentally work, for awhile, as road-markers, nevertheless interesting to watch

panteracapital.medium.com



zerohedge.com

CME To Launch Micro-Bitcoin Futures; Options Traders Betting On $80k By End-AprilWhile chaos reigns in various parts of the US equity and bond markets, bitcoin has been quietly surging higher in the last few days.

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Source: Bloomberg

In fact, US rate forecast volatility is now higher than bitcoin's realized risk...

[url=][/url]

Source: Bloomberg

Ahead of President Biden's pitch tomorrow for another $3 trillion in spending, the crypto patch has been bid and helped today by the news that PayPal will launch "Checkout With Crypto" - a cryptocurrency service for merchants across the US.

"This is the first time you can seamlessly use cryptocurrencies in the same way as a credit card or a debit card inside your PayPal wallet,”PayPal CEO Dan Schulman told Reuters.

Checkout With Crypto service will enable those holding cryptocurrencies on the platform to spend it with all of PayPal's merchants. Supported cryptocurrencies include Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, and Litecoin; the payments company will, however, convert the cryptocurrency to fiat money for the actual payment.

“We think it is a transitional point where cryptocurrencies move from being predominantly an asset class that you buy, hold and or sell to now becoming a legitimate funding source to make transactions in the real world at millions of merchants,” Schulman added.

Also buoying bitcoin prices is the news that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has unveiled plans to launch a new Bitcoin derivatives product that will enable traders to speculate on fractional units of the flagship digital currency.

CoinTelegraph reports that CME Group’s Micro Bitcoin futures contract, which is set to launch May 3 pending regulatory approval, will be worth 0.1 BTC. The smaller contract size provides market participants with an additional tool to hedge their Bitcoin price risk, CME said Tuesday. CME’s current Bitcoin contract unit is 5 BTC.

Tim McCourt, CME Group’s global head of equity index and alternative investment products, explaine:

“The introduction of Micro Bitcoin futures responds directly to demand for smaller-sized contracts from a broad array of clients and will offer even more choice and precision in how participants can trade regulated Bitcoin futures in a transparent and efficient manner at CME Group.” CME launched its Bitcoin futures contract in December 2017. The Chicago Board Options Exchange, Its larger crosstown rival, was the first to introduce the derivatives contract during the same month but has since abandoned Bitcoin futures altogether.

CME has noted a steady uptick in crypto derivatives trading since the first Bitcoin futures contract launched more than three years ago.

[url=][/url]

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

Perhaps that is one reason why bitcoin options traders have started to build a sizable position in call options (levered bets on higher prices), betting on prices above $80,000 by the end of April.

[url=][/url]

Source: bybt

According to the latest data, 5,580 bitcoin (around $330 mm notional) of contracts are outstanding in $80,000 strike April Calls.

Notably, as CoinMinks reports, significant volume has also accumulated around contracts with a strike price of $120,000.

This means that some traders believe the bitcoin price will more than double in the next five weeks.

According to data aggregator Skew, probability estimates based on market data for the April 30 contract suggest that options traders may be a bit too optimistic. The analytics platform gives it a probability of just 6.19% that bitcoin will top $80,000 (and only a 2.15% chance that the bitcoin price will even reach $100,000 by the April 30 expiration date).

The upcoming Coinbase IPO may also be a catalyst for the upside call-buying.



To: Follies who wrote (169754)4/14/2021 3:35:28 AM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation

Recommended By
dalroi

  Respond to of 217654
 
Re <<Sorry TJ I can’t get it over 60k, I am having trouble keeping it above 57k, I may need more leverage we will see what the fed can do for me tomorrow.>>

Am unsure what if anything the Fed did besides all of the officialdom including the Fed denigrating bitgold. Wonderfully, seems to do the job, and with still 3-hours to go until dinner time here in HK, there is still time to breach 65K this business day

deribit.com




To: Follies who wrote (169754)4/14/2021 6:06:29 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217654
 
30 min to dinner time, and we failed to lift above 64,956

maybe tomorrow, unless your side gets it done first

deribit.com




To: Follies who wrote (169754)4/15/2021 4:08:00 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217654
 
Follies, interesting watch & brief Message 33262490 , that per Pantera forecast re 15th April BTC @ 62,968, that be this day, seems quite spot-on.

Trust the two node independent distributed validation checks out on your shore? Still two hours to go until dinner my shore.

eerie, I admit, because coincidences do not happen as often as indicated by the Pantera model

or, perhaps a better adjective be uncanny

boding well for the summer

messari.io



blog.panteracapital.com