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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (169778)	3/22/2021 10:20:51 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217745

Much to puzzle over in the charts, today ? As in other things... conflict reveals much... as might its resolution. Sometimes what is revealed is more important... than how one hand in a game appears it plays out... which appears it is true also in staged productions... even as different observers may see things differently... depending on what they are looking for... or know to look for... that others do not. If you directed the trade today... probably not puzzled by how the charts depict it ? If you aren't an insider directing how the trade will play, how do you find those tells of already known conflicts that are revealed... in charts ? I think you look for things that don't add up... while not ignoring those that do ? Markets are like balloons... you can squeeze them, twist them, make funny animals... float them to the ceiling with helium... or pop them and drop them to the floor... but, what you can't do, is squeeze them here... without them bulging over there. And, as pressure is increased, weaker spots will tend to appear. There are limits in elasticity... and there is variation in pressure... along with sometimes unexpected weaknesses in materials... and varying skills in magicians ability to manipulate and entertain with balloons... And, of course, a modern reality in risk that you see what they want you to see... and they find a way to hide the rest. Also, there are variations in the skills of pit crews... only some dropping lug nuts... or mindlessly wandering onto the track. Is it true, or not... that silver prices are suppressed by massive short positions ? Is it true, or not... that the bubble we are in... inflates all asset prices equally... not just stocks ? No one following gold and silver stock index charts would believe that. So, why this and not that ? Not ignoring it matters as much as it ever does... who is buying and selling, and who is not... and both why and what and when they are buying, and/or selling ? Why was the Russell 2000 down today... carving a pattern that looks exactly like the Dow was cut out from it... and pasted up above it on the upside of the zero line... while the NASDAQ and S&P500 were both up, in nearly identical patterns, as oil, gold and silver were down hard, at first, in very similar patterns ? Apparently, stimulus check money does not at all like the Russell 2000 stocks... in exactly the same but opposite way it likes the Dow... and thus Ma and Pa sold stocks they did not already own to buy the Dow... If Mazlo were a market technician... or a central banker... what would the hierarchy of needs look like... and who would it be trying to front run the trade ? It appears the message today is... trust the lies we tell you... rather than the ones we paint on charts ? And then, much less about Mazlo, and far more about Skinner. Perhaps the more radical intermittent interventions and messaging causing whipsaw moves in markets... are deemed to have a more salubrious overall effect on market psyche than calm consistency in messages and action... that allows the market function to work without directing the awkward and heavy-handed use of triangles and protractors ? Should I be hoping that tomorrow they'll make the chart into a wiener dog... ? I'd think not... so, my interpretation is that today is perhaps something of an inverse incident of dropping lug nuts... in which they're grabbing up all the loose lug nuts they can find... stuffing their pockets... no matter the impact... To which my reply is... if it clearly isn't "the charts" that are lying... I still see no reason to act based on what they seem to say, when it is others lies being told on/by/through the charts. So, the first trick seems it is in identifying when the behavior seen in the charts deviates from "reflecting the market function" to "reflecting something else"... while adopting the appropriate variables in skepticism in interpretation based on the situation. In considering charts... if your expectations of the market seem well founded... and you seem to be in synch with the "feel" of the market... and then things suddenly start to behave oddly... Why ? Is there any reason to believe... that today should have been a massively bullish day in "some" stocks... and not others... based mostly on the index of which they are a part ? Makes no sense to me. An oddity in "random" disconnects I've noted much more of recently. Suggesting... the new pit crew may have stocked up on lug nuts... but it still seems they have ZERO feel for the market... The S&P went up all day, following a nearly straight line at a 15 degree angle... until 3 pm when it went down at a 30 degree angle until the close. Looks perfectly natural. /s I fully get why buyers with stimulus money to spend buying stocks... would buy at a perfectly steady pace charting that ramp, with only a few minor changes... until exactly 3 pm... when the bankers head out for the golf course. So, my question would be... given the obvious pattern in a "directed" trade... or market manipulation... what comparable patterns exist... and with what events did those prior patterns correlate. Oh, yeah... and with rates rising, and the Fed saying they're going to sustain easy money over the long haul... accepting "a little bit more" inflation than we've had... in forty years... the Fed also announced a "normalization" of capital standards following the market implosion of March 2020... which means they are combating rising rates... by relaxing capital restrictions on banks... to make a bit more liquidity in flow... So, maybe not stimulus checks hitting the markets... but banks robbing the Russell 2000 to pay the Dow ? And, that $ in a loan you needed to get your restaurant working again after Covid... looks like it chased stocks, today.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (169778)	3/23/2021 3:36:31 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217745

"clear signals signed in blood" Find it amusing that the explanation for the "face ripping" market moves... that occur without perturbing volatility as measured by the VIX hardly at all... all blamed on shorts covering... because of the record pace at which shorts all pile in... and then stampede back out again... all presented with a straight face right after they pointed out that short interest is at a twenty year low... and the last time short interest was this low was when: "... a decline in interest rates increased the availability of capital. [8] The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997, which lowered the top marginal capital gains tax in the United States, also made people more willing to make more speculative investments. [9] Alan Greenspan, then- Chair of the Federal Reserve, allegedly fueled investments in the stock market by putting a positive spin on stock valuations. [10] As a result of these factors, many investors were eager to invest, at any valuation..." That was the Dot-com bubble of course, followed by: "On April 3, 2000... Bloomberg News published a widely read article that stated: "It's time, at last, to pay attention to the numbers". [41] On Friday, April 14, 2000, the Nasdaq Composite index fell 9%, ending a week in which it fell 25%. Investors were forced to sell stocks ahead of Tax Day, the due date to pay taxes on gains realized in the previous year. [42] At its trough on October 9, 2002, the NASDAQ-100 had dropped to 1,114, down 78% from its peak. [51] [52]" Today, markets are NOT in a panic because rates are rising again... but keep making new highs anyway... while the comparable LIBOR rates are 0.3% and less now... vs 5% to 6% then... that leaving no room for differential monetary policy to work by lowering rates again. Taxes are still low, but major tax hikes are being threatened... even though we're "just now coming out of" the worst depression we've had since 1929 because of a not yet resolved pandemic... while in spite of that reality, for no apparent reason, stock prices sustain higher valuations now, after the crash of 2020, than they did before the crash of 1929... and banks would still rather gamble in stocks going higher than lend money to businesses for nothing but risk in return... Low taxes don't fuel stock buying when no one is making money... so, maybe just give people free money instead ? That narrowly focused bubble in 2000, versus the "everything bubble" we have now... was fueled by interest rates that plunged below 6% all the way down to 5% in 1996... but also by rules changes that enabled banks to cross the barrier erected between banking and trading that used to exist... for good reason. And, in result as a chart of interest rates show... the market has never really recovered from the dot.com bubble... or the subsequent banking frauds exposed and not corrected in 2008... also as prior attempts to restore normal interest rate functions brought the markets down again in 2007-2008 and 2019-2020. But, of course... things are different this time...