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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (13809)	2/2/1998 11:03:00 PM
From: Death Sphincter	Respond to of 94695

HEY BILL!!!! we don't talk much but I've been with you since the beginning of the thread and we're usually on the same page....use similar stuff VIX etc. ..though you are much more thorough. I know you use TC2000 and also watch candles, as do i. i like to try to put it ALL together and when they all agree(which is rare) the odds are in your favor. i don't use worden's BOP, TSV, Money Stream as biblical, but there are some interesting TSV indicators for GE and others that are running high and have divergencies with TSV(particularly 9 day, 18day with GE). plus a possible hanging man on GE, plus resistance at the 8160-8180 level with the DOW and a number of the DOW components reaching points of resistance plus the VIX and all your wonderful work pointing to reversal. i'd like to see a gap up tomorrow with the DOW testing 8160-80 and being a gambling man i can smell a big black engulfing candle. tomorrow i close my calls on Schwab, MOT, and BMY....take some of the profits and buy GE puts and maybe some others. hope we're right. however, with all the $billions that are pouring in for IRA etc. i will expect a "buy the dip" soon thereafter...if this whipsaw happens i hope you can "see" the bottom as i will be looking between 7600-7700. love your time and effort and selflessness in responding to all. good luck!!! (you and me) carl

To: William H Huebl who wrote (13809)	2/3/1998 12:08:00 AM
From: Kris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

This is the best thread on SI.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (13809)	2/3/1998 12:59:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

HI Bill; With the Foreign markets I just size up the mood, by seeing how many are up/down and about how much, sometimes it means nothing but sometimes it's real strong..if it is strong will effect us, other wise I disreguard it. ---------------Puts/calls/shorts Guess it would take a book to explain it correctly so as it would be more clear, thing is with planing you can stay short some stocks, and sell puts on them all at the same time, but having calls to cover your rear has to be part of the plan. You get a bonus on the down side with profit on short and put, that bonus on the puts has to work out ( crunching the numbers ) to pay for your calls, so picking the options with the right spread becomes as much a trick as finding the stock to short. ---------- Also finding "were" the time premium gives you an edge (spread) can be a lot of work, but once your in you got a "lock." Getting a "lock" is not easy, but bookies know that's the way to go. Finding a high shorted stock you generally find puts selling high too..in respect to the calls. also look for calls at a bargin ( time premium wise ) vs Puts bringing a better rate ( time premium wise ) your really buying & selling "time" you get it cheaper if you buy more of it, and get more for it percentage wise selling it in shorter chunks. Also the far out calls don't move as fast with the stock price as the short ones do, so if you need to roll the calls as the price of the stock falls you don't get hit as hard out there..percentage wise as the short is making you, like keep the calls/puts/shorts in balance. in one respect it don't matter the stock goes up, you keep buying back the cheaper puts and selling higher ones and can arb out with the calls any time you want. Not all put sellers are dumb. Some off dem makea biga money a little at a timea. ----------------- I was running numbers for my "Uncle Joe" in Philly in the early 40ts, I was 5 years old ! and a biga bet wasa quater. The neighbors give me the dimes and quaters in a piecea paper, and I take it to "Uncle Joe", ( often they give me a treat too ) for this I get a biga smile from Joe and get to serve the beer in the celler to the poker and rummy players that comea by every weekend, I knowed to serve just as a pot was win, and to give the winner special service..( man did I maka da tips..more money at the time than I could count..but I leared how count fast enough) wonder if that had any thing to do wif my being so good in school in arithmatic..I always creamed the class when it come to numbers..but nothing else interested me..never could and still can't spell. <G> Jim

To: William H Huebl who wrote (13809)	2/3/1998 3:38:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill; RE>Your put selling stategy seems sound... and in a bull market it really doesn't matter if you have to take possession some times, I guess. << Over sight on my part maybe I didn't make it clear, If you have to take possession, ( it gets put to you ) all it's doing is closing your short possition at that point. You predetermined were you would close the short, when you sold the put. Takes some of that I wonder how long I should hold outa it, you found the best option prices combined with the different drops in in price, and let them tell you were the best close of the short will be, adding the drop+prem aginst what the calls cost ya. Many variations can be looked at, but the option table shows you the puts aginst the calls..find the best bargan there..and let the short close price fit that, don't make the optins fit the amount you want the stock to drop..make the drop fit the best option spread. Takes the greed outa it, you can play it again, & again you don't need a big drop in price..as much as you need the best premium for your put., vs what calls cost. Your primary reason for being short, is that you don't really wind up with the stock if it gets put to you, makin money on the drop if any is the secondary reason to be short. The put prem, vs call prem has to show some profit in the event the stock goes up and not down..for the "lock" to work. You want the lock first the rest is gravy "if" it comes. Now what you can get for say FEB puts , might only be 3 were july calls cost more..but all things being even, you will sell the next months puts several times at 3 as these expire or get dirt cheap because of a rise in price and you want to roll forward to get more prem, you buy back the cheap ones. If shes down and but not enough to get put to you thats nice..roll you calls down , ( cost a little but keeps down side profit "locked" in ) it's keeping what you make that counts in the long haul. It seems kinda un-American to lock in a profit, and not even own the stock, or to settel for say little "net gaines" every month and instead of cutting the fat hog on the rear all at once, you just wittle him down each month. What kind of chiseler would do a thing like that. <G> Now if thoes little net gains can amount to just 5% a month on the dough laid out that adds up nicely in a year, proble more than the stock will drop. I wonder what puts and calls on MSFT are a going for, I've always wanted to short that sucker any way. ---------------------- Thing is with this system you gota be around to take care of business in case she does come to ya. And I can generally make more off shore than I can husseling my few coins around. I love playing the market, but it takes a lot of money to make a living at it that can match my wages when I work. Jim