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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (10398)	2/2/1998 9:44:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Dave, you want to know if I think this is a consolidation pattern. If you mean consolidation as an inability for driller price to move up despite all other euphoria going on, then Yes. There are uncertainty in this industry. Crude price is only one factor. The recent development of the falling dayrate stories of the land drillers is another major negative. We all know this is an onshore issue and not an offshore issue but if one sits back and think for a while, one should come to the conclusion that THIS THING IS NOT SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN IN THE FIRST PLACE. Afterall aren't we still in a long term bull market with all the fundamentals intact. I say for a good number of people they would like to let the air clear first before putting their money in the drillers. They have the right to have doubt - doubts such as if this can happen to the land drillers, can they not happen to the offshore dayrate as well LATER (fully realizing the lead time differentiation between a land rig and an offshore rig)? This is an uncertain time when there is a real issue facing some of the industry players. Until the air or cloud gets blown over, people are not going to bite. Trading short term is becoming very difficult as of late. You know my position - we are going to be in the trading range until we see some clearer signal from the March GOM lease sale. Therefore, my advise to people is to be aware of this potential scenario and do like what Heyward did - if there is a short term liquidity need, take profit, even small losses, and don't buy and speculate on a quick pop. One has to be an active trader to do the quick pop - just ask bw. There are always people buying here based on the bottom fishing theory. I just don't feel comfortable increasing my risk further at this point as I'm already participating as much as I'm willing. I'll put my short term money elsewhere.