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To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (7151)	2/2/1998 9:49:00 PM
From: Abner Hosmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

Is the era of fast growth over in East Asia? weforum.org >>Governments that undertake effective adjustment policies will be able to enter another phase of rapid economic growth. Moreover the key factors propelling South-East Asian growth, policies that produced high savings and investment rates are still in place. But the recovery process is going to take between 12-18 months and in the interim, some countries will witness "near recessionary" conditions.<<

To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (7151)	2/2/1998 9:55:00 PM
From: Abner Hosmer	Respond to of 116762

Global shocks and challenges identified weforum.org >>Horst Siebert, President of Germany's Kiel Institute of World Economics, said major European countries face an enormous challenge in adapting rigid labour markets and social security systems. Although the Netherlands, UK and Sweden had responded to the need to adjust, France and Germany were "incapable of moving." Unless adjustments are made around 800, 000 jobless could be added to Europe's unemployed in the next inevitable recession. Siebert also said that European monetary and economic union carried large risks. ...Bergsten forecast that global tension will rise with the introduction of the euro as it will become the world's second key currency. The result will be a substantial portfolio diversification into the euro and away from the dollar. He accused European governments of artificially weakening European currencies in the lead up to EMU; ...Both Bergsten and Lipp said weakness in Japan's economic sector could pose a threat to the stability of global markets...could lead to a "sell Japan panic," <<

To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (7151)	2/2/1998 10:08:00 PM
From: Abner Hosmer	Respond to of 116762

Monetary cooperation in East Asia weforum.org >>Lee suggested that countries should establish a framework of regional monetary cooperation. This would entail sharing of "transparent" information about their respective macroeconomic and financial prospects, cooperation in bank supervision and financial infrastructure and the establishment of an emergency liquidity facility to deal with a crisis. Gerd Hausler, Member of the Board of Directors, Dresdner Bank, Germany said that the turmoil in South-East Asia offered some old-fashioned lessons on economic management..." A big anomaly in Asia, he added is that it has extremely high savings and investment rates but yet the region depends on international financial markets for raising money. "This is because the financial markets infrastructure in the region is insufficient," he said. "The markets suffer from a lack of instruments and expertise and this is due to insufficient deregulation." Hausler feels that though many Asian nations have been quite open in allowing foreign investment in the "real sector", quite often there is hesitation on the part of governments to deregulate financial services.<<

To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (7151)	2/2/1998 10:21:00 PM
From: Abner Hosmer	Respond to of 116762

Stock markets weforum.org >>Sandy Eu, Managing Director of DBS Securities in Singapore, said that the current correction in the markets would continue for the short term. But unless there was an end to the strong fundamentals in the region, he said, there could not be an end to the boom times. He forecasted that recovery would come within a year to 18 months.. ...He closed his presentation by reiterating that the boom times were not over. Investing is not a short-term game. The economic turmoil should push governments and private enterprise to accelerate reforms. ...Speaking on Hong Kong, Margolis said that the local dollar was not at an unsustainable level. The market itself was a "victim of its own virtues," he added. Its openness meant that investors wanting to sell out of Asia pulled funds from Hong Kong, an easy market to withdraw from quickly. Down the road, Hong Kong would for the same reason be one of the first markets to which returning funds would come. ...Jack Wadsworth, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia, Hong Kong, said that, while there had been a boom in Asia's economies, there really had not been a boom in the stock markets.. ...Currency stability may be a thing of the past, as Asia's currencies are no longer linked to the dollar.. ...The advantage will go to those markets that have a higher degree of transparency and wider disclosure. ...Gao Xiqing, Deputy Chief Executive, Hong Kong-Macau Regional Office of the Bank of China, said that he could not really talk about "the boom years" since the highly volatile China market had never really experienced a boom. The mainland's bourses have behaved more like a yo-yo. Indeed, China's markets remain unsophisticated. Disclosure, transparency and enforcement still have to be developed. This is happening, but the process will be slow.<<