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To: TideGlider who wrote (13943)2/2/1998 10:20:00 PM
From: Sweet Ol  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25960
 
I still interpret his remarks to mean that he expects to sell as many lasers as there are steppers sold. In other words, the stepper guys are expected to keep a constant inventory for in-process and etc. They have probably been building inventory as they ramped up their production lines and now it is stabilizing.

To me, that means that future laser sales will be equal to future stepper (+scanner) sales. This suggests a higher number.

JMHO.

jrh



To: TideGlider who wrote (13943)2/2/1998 10:34:00 PM
From: Czechsinthemail  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25960
 
I look at the above and it appears to me Angus is saying the number
shipped will be approximately the same as the number installed. It
appears as he is saying the first quarter will see approx 82 or 83
lasers shipped.


The statement seems kind of ambiguous to me. Since Deanha was asking if the total number installed would finally grow to a greater number than quarterly shipments, you could also interpret the answer to mean that the number they ship will be equal to the total installed base of DUV machines at the end of the next quarter. That might be more than 82 or 83 with only some of those shipped actually getting installed during the quarter --hence the 82-83 plus some number of new installations = the number shipped during the quarter.

Baird



To: TideGlider who wrote (13943)2/2/1998 10:53:00 PM
From: FJB  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 25960
 
Yes, number shipped will equal installments. I asked IR to clarify this and that's what she said. Just their guess. Safe harbor applies.

Bob



To: TideGlider who wrote (13943)2/3/1998 11:03:00 AM
From: Nevin S.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25960
 
T.G. hope your assessment is correct. This stock needs a tailwind. My guess is that institutional investors will wait until results of the first qtr. are out before any serious interest returns to this stock.

You know its interesting, yesterday someone posted an article quoting the infamous Tom Kulak (aka Hot & Cold or Waffle Boy) with Merrill Lynch saying essentially that a premature recovery began in chip stocks precipitated by a slight uptick in DRAM pricing late Dec. or early Jan. Tai-min Pang at Cowen & Co. echos Kurlak's predictions. The general tenor of both analysts is that chip stocks may move up slightly in the near term but will fall back hard before the end of the second quarter. Pang seems to think 1999 earings will be good and this will be reflected in stock prices towards the second half of the year.

On the other side of the aisle we have Morgan Stanley and Prudential issuing buy ratings on a number of chip mfgs.

What do you think?