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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: petal who wrote (67008)	3/31/2021 4:09:10 PM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 78753

And was close to reconsidering my earlier stance: “I am too late to this party” for a moment, on this one Late to the party? When times were good in the fertilizer industry (2012-14) UAN was above $200. Since then UAN has increased its manufacturing capacity by over 50%. When times were bad in the fertilizer industry (2016 - 2020) UAN was about $30. Today the fertilizer industry is back to good times, and UAN is $40. You are not late to the party. The question is how long will the party last? Maybe three more months, maybe five more years. If three months, fertilizer prices collapse, UAN goes back to $30, you lose 33%. If five more years, UAN goes to $300 and pays you $20 per year in distribution. That honestly how I see it.