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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pass pass who wrote (13961)	2/3/1998 2:29:00 AM
From: TI2, TechInvestorToo	Respond to of 25960

<How can you ship but not install?> Very easy, you can ship a new laser to Nikon for their stepper fabrication or their stepper shipment. Do these new lasers from cymer get integrated into the stepper and ship with that stepper, or do they use tooling units during stepper integration and ship the fresh new laser with the stepper they built to be installed at the chipmaker. In other words, do the new lasers shipped from CYMER get installed at the begining or end of the stepper build cycle? The reason I am asking is to understand the laser pipeline to the end user. Once you understand the length of the pipe, then schedule and inventory questions make more sense (at least to me!). Why is this important? Well if the new laser is integrated in the stepper during the build process, then the laser is ordered early and is tied up as WIP (work in process). If the stepper does not ship, neither does the new laser which was ordered a long time ago. CYMI gets the revenue, stepper co holds the inventory. On the other hand, if the stepper is built up with a house owned (or tooling) laser, then the new laser is only required at the end of the build process-the Japanese call this JIT (just in time) inventory control. When their orders drop, they push out their suppliers. CYMI does not get revenue but has lasers to ship to other customers. So lets get practical for us cymerheads. Lets say the following is true (from various SI threads/links): Korea is pushing out stepper orders Nikon and Canon are stronger (more exposure) in Korea ASML is stronger in Taiwan US and Europe are stronger markets than expected Taiwan is cash base, growing like crazy in 250 nm logic ASML is gaining market share. Scenario 1: The laser are integrated at the begining of the build cycle, CYMER shipped and got money from Japanese stepper guys who are holding them. ASML represents upside and CYMER has more orders Scenario 2: Same as 1 except ASML upside not there so some decline for CYMI but it is buffered by stepper companies Scenario 3: The new laser is shipped at end of stepper build cycle. Nikon, Canon push out orders and ASML picks them up. CYMI is more even Scenario 4: Same as 3 except ASML not an upside. CYMI takes the brunt of the Nikon, Canon pushouts in Korea. So, does any one know the stepper build process and when CYMI gets revenue for their laser? When CYMER answered in the conference call about installations, did they mean at the stepper factory or chip factory? Thanks TI2 PS FYI, the TOYOTA workers get the famous (alleged) lifetime employment to assemble cars from assemblies. The cottage (literally) industry that makes the headlight wiring harness takes it on the chin fast and hard during downturns.