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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (19941)	2/3/1998 9:18:00 AM
From: Spartex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Paul: I see nothing wrong with Serendipity bailing with a greater than 10% drop in average NOVL price IF fundamentals do not improve for the company following next quarters release. It has proven wise to follow a disciplinarian approach, and cut losses quickly rather than hang on until the drop continues to grow (see yesterday's IBD article on p.A6 very good medicine). I've made my mistakes too in the past, and have learned to stick to a system of rules, and not get distracted. A proven system of rules will reward such an investor over the long run. Unfortunately many earlier Novell investor's continued to hang on well past the breakdown period of Novell's fundamentals. I'm sure they have all learned something from this exercise. Nonetheless, I feel at this point Novell's fundamentals are improving, but we are not yet close to being out of the woods yet. Next 6 months or so are the key to this turnaround. Offtopic: Hey SI has spellcheck now, neat!! Regards, Quad-K

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (19941)	2/3/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: Serendipity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

<< This is a first: you averaged to 7 1/4 and would bail at 6 1/2 I can't think of anyone ever saying that here. Most of the longs are averaged much higher and have been holding for a long time. Yet you are in at 7 1/4 and would bail at 6 1/2. Did I get something wrong? >> Paul: You got it right. Subject to "the unexpected", I will do as detailed. The strategy I use has evolved over years and is really mine only-for better or worse! In fact, I started to talk about my bottom fishing approach when I joined Novell's board and used an example I considered relevant. Unfortunately, due to my poor presentation, stock involved, and being new to the board, it did not go well and I dropped the subject. As to be in at 7 1/4 and out at 6 1/2 ish...is how I bottom fish in a risky turn-around such as NOVL. The 'what if I am wrong?' is a dominant question for me at all times. When I bought my initial position in NOVL, the position was so small (say it was X shares, the true number is irrelevant) it did not matter even if the company when bankrupt!!! As I have kept averaging down, the out come has become more and more important to my portfolio. Now the initial X has become almost 18X. . Averaging down, being dangerous and basically a losing strategy, when applied to bottom fishing requires extreme caution, discipline and a willingness to accept losses. Over the years and many mistakes, I have learned neither to fall in love with a stock nor with my judgment of a company's future. Extra care is especially needed when competition is led by Microsoft, or is it Microshaft! <GGG> Price, product, quarterly report, new CEO's "grace period" and "promise" and many other elements are converging. The LINE is drawn. The battle is JOINED. Now is the time...<GGG> Personally, I am saying: 'Perform or lose me.' Of course, when I sell and take my loss, neither the market nor NOVL will notice or care, but I will and do! I can lose 10 to 15% a few times and make it up with one or two good investments. For this humble investor/trader, it has boiled down to limiting small mistakes and avoiding big mistakes-if at all possible. STOP LOSS and hedging are the two INSURANCEs available. Writing covered calls is or selling puts are poor choices at this point and price. So, Stop is my only simple solution. NOVL, for my mental and financial health, must perform soon-change trend -or I will not wait too long. Having said all the above, I am very positive on NOVL and hope my optimism will be rewarded. <ggg> I hope this will explain the why of 6 «! Regards, seren.