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To: Sector Investor who wrote (33030)	2/3/1998 9:03:00 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 61433

ADSL to beat LMDS for 36% of US Broadband Market by 2003; According to a New Study by Allied Business Intelligence PR Newswire - February 03, 1998 08:54 %TLS %CPR %PDT V%PRN P%PRN OYSTER BAY, N.Y., Feb. 3 /PRNewswire/ -- LMDS faces some steep challenges from ADSL for broadband access to the home in the US. By 2003, the broadband local loop market will be well underway and, according to the results of a new study, ADSL will hold 36% of the market (subscribers). Service revenues from LMDS by 2003 are expected to be $598 million, representing 9% of the market. The study, "Broadband Delivery in the Local Loop: The Access War Begins. Competitive Technology Assessment and Market Outlook" examines the following technologies: xDSL, Cable Modems, ISDN, FTTH + FTTC, LMDS + Two-Way MMDS, Satellite Technologies, and Millimeter Wave Radio. Growing use of commercial systems like T1 over HDSL are also examined. Andy Fuertes, Senior Analyst at Allied Business Intelligence, Inc. an Oyster Bay, New York, telecommunications consulting firm, predicts that, after ADSL, Cable Modems will hold the next largest market share with 26%. Satellite technology will account for 12% as will ISDN (BRI only) representing a significant decline from a 95% market share in 1997. ABI expects US broadband subscribership to grow from 2.6 million in 1998 to 14.5 million by 2003. One of the major competitive advantages of ADSL is its "cell of deployment" number. This represents the number of premises which need to be passed in order to supply a broadband service. For ADSL the magic number is one. Cable modems range from 500 to 1500, LMDS is roughly 10,000 and satellite can be millions to tens of millions. Another great advantage of ADSL is that 50% to 60% of access lines in the US are within 12,000 feet of a local central office (CO). And 80% of access lines are suitable for ADSL deployment (only 50% can support 6 Mbps + downstream). Still, ADSL faces challenges. Interoperability issues have yet to be worked out; current modems may cause interference with existing ISDN and T1 services; modems are costly; ADSL cannot supply enough bandwidth for cable TV services; ADSL threatens existing RBOC services; ADSL top speeds are still slower than cable modems; and few ADSL modem manufacturers can currently offer mass production. Costs per line of broadband technologies will be one of the main issues over the next few years. Currently, ADSL ranges from $800 to $1,500 although Alcatel is reported to be getting close to the industry "sweet spot" of $500. Cable modem access will run from $300 to $500 per home passed plus modem costs. Satellite systems will cost from $60 to $90 at 10% penetration, plus customer premises equipment. LMDS acquisition costs may be as little as $150 per home passed. Understanding all of the issues related to subscriber cost of acquisition is important and there are many factors. The report explores these issues in detail. The report includes competitive profiles for 60+ manufacturers of broadband technologies. More than 55 tables support over 250 pages of concise, text. ABI has been tracking telecommunications markets since 1990. SOURCE Allied Business Intelligence /CONTACT: Tim Archdeacon of Allied Business Intelligence, 516-624-3113/ /Web site: alliedworld.com