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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (170548)4/17/2021 1:57:52 AM
From: sense  Respond to of 217742
 
Did pretty much the same sorting process for silver miners... but with a lot more brutal effect in the culling... I think that if all you did was buy Pan American and Fresnillo I'm not sure you'd miss out on much potential for a whole lot less risk... Or, over-weight them, throw in a bit of Hecla... and then pick a few explorers from what I hope is a more well curated list than you'll find elsewhere... a few of which may offer shorter term upside... a few more significant longer term leverage... from still largely undervalued potentials.

paas, fnlpf, hl, silv, bhll, ssvr, silef, nupmf, viprf, bbsrf, gato

The producers first, with the last seven ranging between the "more under-valued" to the "much higer risk" exploratory end of the spectrum... but all selected to have better than average chances of making it big.

The Bunker Hill a past producer as a replacement for the Coeur complex that's been ruined by USAS management and half lost to being owned by Sprott... but still stuck with the crap management... so can't go there. The Bunker Hill with similar potential, perhaps... but as a fixer upper that needs even more work done than the neglect of the Coeur/Galena/Calloway imposes... but it has a good chance to be better managed. Silver Valley has a lot of silver left... but it needs higher prices to be competitive. Gatos thus now focused in Mexico... but it is also a Silver Valley company, as the erstwhile namesake owner of the Sunshine Mine. The Lucky Friday finally getting back in production, now that the 3 year long labor dispute has ended, which should give Hecla a nice bump. That covers 3 on the list...

Violating a few rules with these two... in going back to Bolivia with Silver Elephant and New Pacific... but the nature of the deposits in Bolivia is undeniably world class... and Silver Elephant backs right up against the old South American Silver project I used to be invested in... the current properties are on a continuation of the same trend... and they are working to get Malku Khota too (3km of 34km drilled, hosts historic 480mt* resource 370m oz of silver, 4,000t indium & gallium, 500m pounds zinc & lead). New Pacific already worthy enough, but making the pick look good with a nice bit of news out 4 days ago.

Viper, Gatos and Bluestone and Summa are explorers chasing some of the highest potential value deposits out there now... Summa on a smaller scale, in Tonopah, Nevada... but, hard to argue with 94 ounces of silver and 1 ounce of gold per ton... or even half that... probably the best property in Tonopah. Gatos already mentioned owns the Sunshine, but has a wide open exploration potential in Mexico starting with Cerro Los Gatos, now drilling at Santa Valeria, too, still just scratching the surface. Viper made news and popped recently with a high grade hole... but it is still in the early stages of exploration so has great upside if the trends hold up, finding both high grade intervals and long intercepts of bulkable lower grades. Bluestone also finding mixes of long intercepts of bulakable values... and decent intercepts of higher grades, 1 opt of gold over 6 or 7 meters, with the occasional shocker in a 1.2 meter hit of 44 oz gold and 71 oz silver per ton. Looking for silver and finding gold... not that bad a deal.

SilverCrest not overlooked, but a well considered pick... and earned it again this week.

Hecla, Fresnillo and Pan American... probably don't need to bother explaining... ?



To: TobagoJack who wrote (170548)4/17/2021 5:28:52 AM
From: sense  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217742
 
Also poked at the royalty companies a bit more... and have discarded a number of my prior leaders:

atbyf ROE 43.03, yield 0.78%
nsrxf ROE 11.51, yield 2.11%
atusf ROE -6.69 yield 1.33% sand elygfThe biggest advantage in the royalty payers... isn't in the low percentage dividend of the big players... its in the growth when you get in early... which I did in SAND as it was being launched when it was well under $1 back in 2007. The bigger companies are pricey, and really constrained in their ability to grow... so you see them putting more and more money into bigger and bigger projects over time... that tend to have less risk and thus less upside leverage than smaller projects. So a well managed junior, that manages the risks by managing, that also has much better growth prospects... is far more likely to grow value more than a major... SAND peaking at just over $15 in the fall of 2012... But, risk grows... if the junior isn't all that well managed. So you do need to find a management team that are already a big company quality team... that just haven't got there quite yet... And, the risk shrinks a lot... when market conditions favor the sector... so the timing issues are very real in the junior royalties... but the risk off bull market in PMs supports the juniors enough that it should have (royalty stock) investors seeking more risk (to a point) and not less ?

The ROE metric works, too, but WPM at a 9 ROE with a 1.2% yield... versus a more junior player with a higher ROE and a higher yield... that should have more growth potential ? Or even an OR with an ROE of 1 and a Yield of 1.5%... that is only 2 billion in market cap vs WPM's 19B ?

The early stage companies can't be judged by the numbers in isolation... rather than the trend over time... and a bull market skews the trend. The long term value in the juniors future yield... still depends on buying them cheap before they had one.