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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (170736)4/19/2021 5:51:16 PM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation

Recommended By
marcher

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217592
 
Re <<OK Question .. u think digital yuan will be on blockchain ?>>

I believe No. eCNY in current form is not based on blockchain tech, at least not the unalterable / non-reversible / unrecallable / unreachable blockchain. IOW, not-blockchain.

Re <<I think governments going digital is more to reduce expense of physical money and most to have oversight of every transaction ..>>

... and to better prepare for emergencies, wars, anti-crime (drugs, embezzlement, etc), social issue 'solutions (UBI, taxation, etc), directed spending, targeted MMT, etc - in a phrase, modulate macro.

China actually explicitly stated that the aim of the eCNY is not to crater the underground economy (way too dangerous a move) but to measure and track it. Such stated in seminar to Russian bankers by PBOC. The Russians are taking courses along the way so as to best engage.

Re <<gold ... BTC>>

I believe eCNY shall be able to exchange for both gold and China-produced fresh BTC, at least in limited quantity. Should anyone aggregated large amounts such would show up on the trail.

nytimes.com

China Charges Ahead With a National Digital Currency

The electronic Chinese yuan is now being tested in cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing. No other major power is as far along with a homegrown digital currency.

Published March 1, 2021Updated March 5, 2021


A sign for China’s new digital currency, eCNY.Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

Annabelle Huang recently won a government lottery to try China’s latest economics experiment: a national digital currency.

After joining the lottery through the social media app WeChat, Ms. Huang, 28, a business strategist in Shenzhen, received a digital envelope with 200 electronic Chinese yuan, or eCNY, worth around $30. To spend it, she went to a convenience store near her office and picked out some nuts and yogurt. Then she pulled up a QR code for the digital currency from inside her bank app, which the store scanned for payment.

“The journey of how you pay, it’s very similar” to that of other Chinese payments apps, Ms. Huang said of the eCNY experience, though she added that it wasn’t quite as smooth.

China has charged ahead with a bold effort to remake the way that government-backed money works, rolling out its own digital currency with different qualities than cash or digital deposits. The country’s central bank, which began testing eCNY last year in four cities, recently expanded those trials to bigger cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, according to government presentations.

The effort is one of several by central banks around the world to try new forms of digital money that can move faster and give even the most disadvantaged people access to online financial tools. Many countries have taken action as cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which has recently soared in value, have become more popular.



Annabelle Huang’s screenshot of the eCNY app.

But while Bitcoin was designed to be decentralized so that no company or government could control it, digital currencies created by central banks give governments more of a financial grip. These currencies can enable direct handouts of money that expire if not used by a particular date and can make it easier for governments to track financial transactions to stamp out tax evasion and crack down on dissidents.

Over the last 12 months, more than 60 countries have experimented with national digital currencies, up from just over 40 a year earlier, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The countries include Sweden, which is conducting real-world trials of a digital krona, and the Bahamas, which has made a digital currency, the Sand Dollar, available to all citizens.

In contrast, the United States has moved slowly and done just basic research. At a New York Times event last week, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen indicated that might change when she said an American digital currency was “absolutely worth looking at” because it “could result in faster, safer and cheaper payments.”

Yet no major power is as far along as China. Its early moves could signal where the rest of the world goes with digital currencies.

“This is about more than just money,” said Yaya Fanusie, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a think tank, and an author of a recent paper on the Chinese currency. “It’s about developing new tools to collect data and leverage that data so that the Chinese economy is more intelligent and based on real-time information.”

While the Chinese government has not said if and when it will officially introduce the eCNY nationwide, several officials have mentioned having it ready for tourists visiting for the 2022 Olympics in Beijing. Recent articles and speeches from officials at the People’s Bank of China, which is the country’s central bank, underscored the project’s ambitions and the desire to be first.

“The right to issue and control digital currencies will become a ‘new battlefield’ of competition between sovereign states,” read an article in China Finance, the magazine of the central bank, in September. “China has many advantages and opportunities in issuing fiat digital currencies, so it should accelerate to seize the first track.”

The People’s Bank of China did not respond to a request for comment.

The development of a national digital currency began in 2014, when the People’s Bank of China set up an internal group to work on one, shortly after Bitcoin gained attention in the country. In 2016, the central bank created a division called the Digital Currency Institute. Last year, it began trials of eCNY in the cities of Shenzhen, Suzhou, Xiongan and Chengdu, according to research from Sino Global Capital, a financial investment firm.

People invited to the trial through a lottery on WeChat or other apps were able to click on a link and get a balance of 200 electronic yuan, which was sometimes displayed in their bank app over a picture of an old-fashioned Chinese bank note with Mao Zedong’s face. To spend the money, users can use an eCNY app to scan a retailer’s QR code or produce a QR code that the retailer can scan.

The design of eCNY borrows only a few minor technical elements from Bitcoin and does not use the so-called blockchain technology, a ledgerlike system, which most cryptocurrencies rely on, officials from the People’s Bank of China have said.

In a hint of the currency’s unusual nature, recipients have only a few weeks to spend the digital money before it disappears. So far, only a limited number of retailers have taken the currency. But early users said the experience was so similar to Chinese digital payment options like Alipay and WeChat Pay that it would not be hard to switch to it if it rolled out nationwide.

“I’m totally fine to pay with the eCNY, since it’s smooth and fast enough,” said Yifan Gao, 30, a financial analyst in Shenzen, who recently used her 200 eCNY to buy snacks at a 7-Eleven.

Ms. Gao added that the eCNY would become mainstream only if people could send it to friends, which was not possible with the trial version.

Eswar Prasad, the former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division, said one of the most important factors driving the eCNY was the success of WeChat Pay and Alipay. Both have given rise to a new alternate financial system that has worried Chinese officials and led to a recent crackdownon Jack Ma, the founder of Alibaba and Ant Financial, which owns Alipay.

“The eCNY is really a defensive mechanism to keep central bank money relevant,” Mr. Prasad said.

If the eCNY is successful, it will give the central bank new powers, including novel types of monetary policy to help the economy grow. In one possibility that economists have discussed, a central bank could program its digital currency to slowly lose value so that consumers are encouraged to spend it immediately.

Some economists said China’s digital currency would also make it easier for the renminbi to compete with the U.S. dollar as a global currency because it can move internationally with fewer barriers. But Chinese officials and analysts have said many other changes would be necessary for that to happen.

Beyond those ambitions, the eCNY could immediately give the Chinese government more power to monitor finance flows because a digital currency system can record every transaction. That poses privacy concerns, with China having used many tools in the past to crack down on dissidents.

“If I cannot buy you a coffee without the government knowing about it, I do worry about what this could mean,” Mr. Prasad said.

Ms. Huang, the business strategist in Shenzhen, said she already assumed that most of her data could be tracked and had gotten used to it.

“I choose to sacrifice a little bit of privacy for convenience,” she said.

Nathaniel Popper covers finance and technology. He is the author of “Digital Gold: Bitcoin and the Inside Story of the Misfits and Millionaires Trying to Reinvent Money.” He previously worked at The Los Angeles Times and The Forward. @nathanielpopperFacebook

A version of this article appears in print on March 2, 2021, Section B, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: China Is Charging Ahead With Its Digital Currency. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (170736)4/19/2021 6:36:51 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217592
 
The other central banks are curious about the eCNY, and might be concerned if the eCNY be hooked up to the BTC, setting off an arms race ala rare earths protocol where 75% of hash# originates from CCP

They need not worry, for for-sure eCNY shall at least experimentally be useable to buy BTC, especially if such BTC are straight from the China mines.

Am going to guess launching another PoW token along the lines of BTC is unlikely given the energy involved now that all the arguments are in, and as ETH shall fork over to PoS, that leaves BTC as sovereign PoW coin with Dogecoin in the wing as fluke prince.

As in the case of Lord of the Rings, BTC be the coin that rules over all other coins.

Buy BTC, at least as collectors item, as it shall take on numismatic premium just like any other collector's token


ft.com

Is the central bank panic about the PBOC coin justified?

The Bank of England has united with the Treasury to explore the basis for a UK central bank digital currency, but will it also fairly address the downsides?

April 19, 2021
© REUTERSIn further reactionary panic to China’s hugely-hyped digital currency advances, the Bank of England announced on Monday that it would be creating a joint taskforce with the UK Treasury to explore the potential of issuing a British equivalent.

As their press release stated:

A CBDC would be a new form of digital money issued by the Bank of England and for use by households and businesses. It would exist alongside cash and bank deposits, rather than replacing them.

The move is likely to magnify perceptions that the West can only meet the challenge emerging from China’s e-currency advances, and the greater efficiencies it is likely to offer users, by following a similar path.

And yet, this is hardly the case. The lack of critical commentary about the setbacks China faces in making its e-yuan system a proper challenger to the dollar are glaring. As too is the lack of proper critical commentary about the huge disadvantages that accompany any system that opts to go full CDBC (or unite with its domestic Treasury on any such action).

In the interests of dispelling some of these myths and balancing the narratives out there, we thought we would cite a few comments from Martin Chorzempa, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who recently testified on this “threat” before the US-China Economic Security Review Commission.

Here’s the key extract (our emphasis):

Hype has far outpaced the reality in digital currencies, CBDCs, and China’s digital RMB in particular. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are booming, but these are mostly for speculation, as they are ill-suited to large volumes of payment transactions. We are still at an early stage in which the benefits of CBDCs have not yet been proven in practice, and the risks (cyber, operational, financial) are serious enough that most central banks will be hesitant to issue any until these can be resolved with a high degree of certainty. China’s eCNY efforts have similarly yet to prove they will be any cheaper, more efficient, more private, or more convenient than the existing domestic and international payment systems. Therefore, it is unlikely to represent any more a threat to the dollar’s international dominance than the current forms of RMB, at least over the short and medium term. Nothing is certain over the long term, however, so the US should continue to carefully monitor China’s CBDC efforts and other digital currency innovations and incorporate any useful lessons to ensure that dollars and the payments systems that carry them remain competitive long term.

The important context is that for the large part, the Chinese state, allowed fintech companies like Alibaba-affiliated Ant Group and Tencent-owned WeChat to grow into overly dominant bank-like entities that serviced both financial and commercial activities. This is because it suited their interests to modernise the financial landscape and to drive mass adoption of digital cash systems. It made strategic sense to temporarily allow these entities to undercut the far more heavily regulated state-owned financial sector.

Left unchecked, however, these private entities soon became so powerful and so prone to exploiting international regulatory arbitrage they became ever more confident of their ability to deny Chinese government data requests about their clients.

This was obviously going to introduce a power struggle.

When the People’s Bank of China acted in 2018 to force these entities to bring customer deposits onto the central bank balance sheet on a fully reserved basis, it became evident the good times were up. From this point on the fintechs would have to tow the government line or see their exceptional allowances vis-a-vis banks extinguished.

Unsurprisingly, in no time at all, the framework began to clip away at the capacity of the fintech giants to compete with state-owned financial institutions, especially with respect to credit creation.

But rather than recognising the degree to which his fortunes were built on state-permitted financial arbitrage in the first place, Alibaba founder Jack Ma saw fit to vent his frustration in a now infamous October speech, in which he criticised excessive government regulation. Why he thought this would encourage a change of heart by the government is the puzzle.

The government predictably used the criticism to initiate even stricter regulations around privacy, anti-monopoly and financial risk, all of which contributed to the cancellation of the Ant Group’s planned IPO.

In the months since, Chinese authorities have moved to up their control of Ant Group even further by forcing a restructuring of the group into a fully-licensed bank-holding company. The power struggle with Ma also continues.

On Monday, Reuters reported Ant Group would be exploring options that would see Ma give up his control in the company by divesting his stake in the financial technology company entirely.

According to Reuters:

The company hoped Ma's stake, worth billions of dollars, could be sold to existing investors in Ant or its e-commerce affiliate Alibaba Group Holding Ltd without involving any external entity, one of the sources with company ties said.

But the second source also with company connections said that during discussions with regulators, Ma was told that he would not be allowed to sell his stake to any entity or individual close to him, and would instead have to exit completely. Another option would be to transfer his stake to a Chinese investor affiliated with the state, the source said.

Any move would need Beijing's approval, both sources with knowledge of the company's thinking said.

This is the context that Beijing’s digital yuan ambitions slot into. It is important because it demonstrates not only that e-money use already prevails in China, but also -- thanks to recent regulatory action vis-a-vis Ant Group -- that the PBOC already largely controls it.

So perhaps the e-yuan push is motivated by technological factors and a desire to leverage new decentralised blockchain technologies? Well no. As Chorzempa identifies, Chinese central bankers have publicly rejected the use of blockchain as a basis for their e-yuan because it cannot handle the transaction volume they anticipate.

So what then is impetus for going ahead with a CBDC, if currency and payments are already digital, the PBOC already has the capacity to obtain data from fintechs it has brought into line and blockchain is not the attraction, asks Chorzempa?

Ultimately, as we have stressed for a long time, it’s all about expanding access to the central bank balance sheet to non-bank entities. But since opening up the balance sheet too much is also a recipe for cost transfer to the government, the road ahead seems focused on a two-tier system where the PBOC authorises and supervises intermediaries, starting with banks.

That again begs the question: how is it really all that different to what we have now?

Chorzempa suggests the only real difference is that the e-yuan, unlike bank deposit money, will not pay any interest on money held in e-yuan wallets, which works in a system where banks can offer attractive interest rates to lure funding. He also believes the PBOC might be inclined to help help mask customer identities details from retailers by using encryption.

But if that’s the model that’s to catch on in the rest of the world -- especially one that is already partial to negative rates on bank deposits or short-term government securities -- it introduces a hugely destabilising force in the financial system, since it creates a climate where the central bank competes directly with the banks it licenses.

In a negative interest world, this disintermediation risk can only be mitigated by a strict cap on the value of balances anyone can hold as CBDC or by matching the negative rate environment. But to police such a cap, the centralised system would require more information about its users, not less.

In that sense, the true disruptive force being peddled by China isn’t access to a superior payment infrastructure, but rather to a system that can facilitate interest rate arbitrage, and in so doing suck dollar funding away from the Western financial system (at a below market rate) . The other main benefit is then using that well-funded framework to create, in the words of Chorzempa, “an alternative, sanctions-proof set of financial infrastructure and currency arrangements”.

We can see why central bankers might be worried about this since it is a bit of Kobayashi Maru situation. If they don’t emulate the system, dollar-funding could be sucked out of the Western financial system in a feedback loop that depreciates the dollar in favour of the yuan (although there are obviously other factors that come into play, such as trust in the Chinese financial system over more Western ones). If they do emulate, the Western financial system could see their own central banks defunding their own banking network, at the same time as adopting ever more centralised and state-directed practices which -- under their own AML/KYC frameworks -- would force them into ever greater surveillance of their population.

Either way, the situation benefits China. And neither pathway diminishes the attraction of the sanctioned (i.e. the financially deplatformed) to buy into a parallel financial-network system where their ways are tolerated rather than penalised.

But framing the conversation as a technological challenge is nonsensical. All it does is detract from the very real downsides of overly centralised systems and the true nature of the competition at hand, which is a function of interest-rate arbitrage, the sort of privacy users value more (privacy from the state or from data-mining merchants and other private sector entities), and the question of whether deplatforming is effective at all.

Related links:
The vanishing billionaire: how Jack Ma fell foul of Xi Jinping - FT



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (170736)4/20/2021 8:10:46 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217592
 
Bullish, Shanghai - Zurich link, together w/ eCNY - CHF - BTC - Gold links

Simple matter to do Hong Kong - Zurich, as HK - Shanghai already done.

Should all be tokenised w/ use of Casper, 24 / 7 intercontinental trading happens.

finance.yahoo.com

Shanghai exchange hints at sale of global depositary receipts by Chinese companies in Switzerland amid fraying US-China ties

Tue, April 20, 2021, 5:30 PM

The Shanghai Stock Exchange will embark on a project that could see the inaugural sale of global depositary receipts (GDRs) in Switzerland by Chinese companies, according to a senior bourse official, amid growing US-China tensions.

"We are preparing to make important efforts in Switzerland going forward and we believe that the first batch of the trial will succeed this year," Cai Jianchun, general manager of the Shanghai exchange, said in a panel discussion at the Boao Forum in Hainan.

Cai did not elaborate on his statement. The deputy chiefs of the Chinese regulators overseeing the stock market and foreign exchange were in attendance.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

The comment, however, is widely interpreted as a follow-up to a memorandum of understanding between the Shanghai and Swiss exchanges in 2019. The two sides had agreed to study the feasibility of allowing the listing of securities including GDRs on each other's market. Other possible areas of cooperation included digitalisation.




Britain's Chancellor Philip Hammond claps during a ceremony for the London-Shanghai Connect project launch in London in June 2019: Photo LSE Group handout alt=Britain's Chancellor Philip Hammond claps during a ceremony for the London-Shanghai Connect project launch in London in June 2019: Photo LSE Group handout>

A link-up with the Swiss exchange would be the third cross-border plan by the Shanghai exchange, which is the biggest in Asia based on the 46 trillion yuan (US$7.1 trillion) of stock capitalisation. It is seen as China's continuing effort to open up its markets to foreign investors. The local exchange currently has "stock connect" programmes with Hong Kong and London.

The Shanghai-Hong Kong linkage has become a pivotal conduit for two-way flow of capital in and out of mainland China since its inception in 2014.

A Shanghai-London connection, however, has progressed more slowly, partly because of diplomatic rows with Britain over Hong Kong, the Covid-19 pandemic and other issues. Companies including Huatai Securities and China Pacific Insurance have sold about US$6 billion worth of GDRs through the link since 2019.

Diversifying sources of overseas financing for Chinese companies is critical for Beijing at a time when the US is heightening the scrutiny of auditing results that could lead to the delisting of the nation's biggest technology companies from American exchanges.

Many US-traded Chinese companies are hedging the risk by making secondary stock offerings in Hong Kong. The latest is travel and ticketing firm Trip.com, which joins a list that includes Alibaba Group Holding, JD.com and Baidu.

Serving technology innovation has been at the top of the agenda of the Shanghai exchange, Cai added during the Boao panel discussion. Since its inception in 2019, 262 companies had raised a combined 340 billion yuan on its Science and Technology Innovation Board, known as the Star Market, through March this year.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebookand Twitter pages. Copyright © 2021 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2021. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.



To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (170736)4/20/2021 8:37:25 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217592
 
Let us wait & see ...

Yellen sounding very different from Li Bo

biden-administration-reportedly-in-early-stages-of-readying-regulation-for-bitcoin

Biden Administration Reportedly in Early Stages of Readying Regulation for Bitcoin
Mandy Williams
Last Updated Apr 20, 2021 @ 12:11
With Bitcoin (BTC) gaining widespread adoption globally, the United States government is reportedly in the early stages of developing regulatory guidelines for the popular cryptocurrency and the entire crypto industry.

Sources familiar with the matter told FOX Business’ Charlie Gasparino that the upcoming regulation, which will focus on crypto infrastructure and taxation, is being led by the Treasury Department Secretary, Janet Yellen, and her deputy, Wally Adeyemo.

Upcoming Regulations Could be StrictSources told Gasperino that Gary Gensler, the newly appointed chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is awaiting directives from the Treasury Department to develop a more concise regulatory framework for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

While it is not clear when the regulation will be made public, the U.S. government has already proposed an anti-money laundering rule that will require crypto users to undergo a compulsory Know-Your-Customer (KYC) procedure if they conduct a transaction of $3,000.

Crypto Is Here To StayThe move has been slammed by various crypto industry players, including Kraken CEO Jesse Powell, who believe the initiative goes contrary to crypto’s pseudonymous nature.

Powell noted at the time that the move by the U.S. government could be the tip of the iceberg as he believes more stringent regulation is on the way.

While it is not clear whether the regulation may involve a total crackdown on cryptocurrencies, Gasparino noted that it is almost impossible to ban cryptos at this stage given the mass adoption of the assets by institutional investors.

For this reason, Gasparino noted that “Crypto is here to stay.”

Janet Yellen Blasts BitcoinYellen being at the center of the proposed regulation for the industry may not come as a surprise to many because she has always been a critic of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin.

Back in February, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization received some devastating blows from Yellen, which sent its price crashing on both occasions.

Although she claims to like Bitcoin’s potential, she believes it is mostly used by criminals to conduct nefarious activities, including terrorist financing and money laundering.

Commenting on bitcoin’s use in payments, she noted that it is highly speculative and inefficient in transactions because of its high energy consumption.