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Bitcoin bears have a $340M lead heading into Friday’s BTC options expiry
$1.55 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire on April 23 and the recent BTC crash to $51,000 has given bears a $340 million advantage.
3 hours ago
Bitcoin ( BTC) price is making a slow recovery after facing a sharp 16% correction in the early hours of April 18.
While some analysts blame a 9,000 BTC deposit at Binance, others focused on the hashrate drop caused by a coal mining accident in China. Regardless of the reason behind the $51,200 low, options market makers were forced to adjust their exposure.
Typically, arbitrage desks seek non-directional exposure, meaning they are not directly betting on BTC moving in any particular direction. However, neutralizing options exposure usually requires a dynamic hedge, meaning positions must be adjusted according to Bitcoin's price.
These arbitrage desks' risk adjustments usually involve selling BTC when the market drops, which as a result, adds further pressure to long liquidations. Therefore, it makes sense to understand the current level of risk as the April 23 options expiry approaches. We will attempt to dissect whether or not bears will benefit from a $50,000 BTC price.
The initial outlook seems balancedBefore the April 18 correction, BTC accumulated 74% gains in three months as it marked a $64,900 all-time high. Thus, it is natural for investors to approach protective options more heavily.
 Bitcoin April 23 aggregate options. Source: BybtWhile the neutral-to-bullish call (buy) option provides the buyer with upside price protection, the opposite happens with the more bearish put (sell) options. By measuring each price level's risk exposure, traders can gain insight into how bullish or bearish traders are positioned.
The total number of contracts set to expire on April 23 totals 27,320 BTC, which is $1.55 billion at the current $56,500 price. However, bears and bulls are apparently balanced as the call (buy) options total 45% of the open interest.
Bears have a decent advantage after the recent crashWhile the initial picture seems neutral, one must consider that the $64,000 call (buy) and higher options are almost worthless, with less than three days left before expiry. A more bearish situation emerges when these 6,400 bullish contracts currently trading below $50 each are removed.
The neutral-to-bearish put options dominate with 70% of the remaining 19,930 BTC contracts. The open interest stands at $1.13 billion considering the current Bitcoin price, and this gives the bears a $450 million advantage.
One can see that bulls were caught off-guard as Bitcoin retraced 13% after the April 14 all-time high. A meager 3,000 BTC call options are left below $58,000, which is only 24% of the total.
Meanwhile, the neutral-to-bearish put options amount to 9,000 BTC contracts at $55,000 and higher strikes. This difference represents a $340 million open interest that favors bears.
As things currently stand, the expiries between $57,000 and $64,000 are reasonably balanced, which suggests that the bears have an incentive to keep the price down on April 23.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Exchange tokens bounce from key support levels as COIN looks for direction
Bitcoin’s sharp correction to $50,000 brought Binance Coin, FTX Token, OKex and Huobi Token to their lower support levels but data shows there is still a bullish case for exchange tokens.
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A lot of hype was built up before the Coinbase listing on the Nasdaq on April 14 and several cryptocurrencies rallied in the run-up to the event.
However, traders usually buy the rumor and sell the news. In this case, they bought until the event, and then several investors seem to have booked profits aggressively. This resulted in a correction in several major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin ( BTC).
 Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360In the run-up to the Coinbase listing, several exchange tokens rallied as traders bid up their price in relation to Coinbase's $100 billion valuation. Now that COIN has been trading on Nasdaq for nearly a week, let's take a look at how exchange tokens are performing since the listing.
BNB/USDTBinance Coin ( BNB) was quoting at $256.72 on Feb. 19 and from there, it rallied to an all-time high at $638.56 on April 12, giving 148.73% returns to investors.
VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for BNB on April 2, before the rally picked up momentum.
The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historic and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.
 VORTECS™ Score (green) vs.BNB price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets ProAs seen from the one-month chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for BNB flipped green on April 2 when the price was close to $335.
Barring small periods, the VORTECS™ Score remained in the green all through the rally to $601 on April 13. Thus the indicator could have assisted traders in sticking with the rally even while other analytical methods may have warned of overbought levels.
The coin witnessed profit booking above $600 and corrected to the 20-day exponential moving average ($463) on April 18. However, a positive sign is that the bulls did not allow the price to hang below the 20-day EMA.
 BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewBoth moving averages continue to slope up and the relative strength index (RSI) is above 68, indicating that the bulls are in control. Buyers may face resistance at $600 but if they can clear this hurdle, the BNB/USDT pair could march up to $638.56.
The bears will again try to stall the uptrend in the $600 to $638.56 zone. If the price turns down from this zone, it could once again dip to $428 and the pair may remain range-bound for a few days.
However, if the bulls drive the price above the all-time high, the pair could pick up momentum and rally toward $832. This bullish view will invalidate if the bears sink and sustain the price below $428.
Such a move will suggest that supply exceeds demand and that could pull the price down to $348.69.
FTT/USDTFTX Token (FTT) rallied from $28.82 on Feb. 19 to an all-time high at $59.59 on April 14, clocking gains of 106.76%. Since then, the token has been in a corrective phase but the positive sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to sustain below the 20-day EMA ($48.70). This suggests strong buying on dips.
The news of the FTX exchange burning over $6.4 million worth of FTT, $2 million more than their previous record, is likely to attract buyers as it shows the exchange has been doing robust business. As more tokens are burned, the supply will reduce and with increasing demand, the price is likely to move higher.
 FTT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf the bulls can push the price above $52.55, the FTT/USDT pair could rally to $59.59. If the bulls can thrust the price above this resistance, the momentum is likely to pick up and the pair could rally to $71.89.
However, if the bulls fail to propel the price above $52.55, it will suggest that demand dries up at higher levels. That could strengthen the bears and they will then try to sink the price to the 50-day simple moving average ($41.32).
This is an important support to watch out for because the price has not closed below it since mid-November of last year. Therefore, a break below it will suggest a change in trend and open the gates for a deeper correction to $32.
HT/USDTHuobi Token (HT) was trading at $18.94 on Feb. 19 and from there it moved up to an all-time high at $26.89 on Feb. 20, but since then, it has not been able to come close to the level.
The token witnessed a sharp correction after hitting the all-time high and it dropped to an intraday low at $12.13 on March 25, losing about 55% from the highs.
 HT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewGenerally, after a deep fall the price consolidates in a range before starting the next trending move. The same thing happened with the HT/USDT pair as well. The pair traded between $12.13 and $18 until the bulls pushed the price above the resistance on April 10.
However, the bulls could not sustain the breakout as the price turned down from $22.76 on April 12 and re-entered the range on April 18.
The bulls are trying to defend the 50-day SMA ($16) but are struggling to sustain the price above $18. This shows selling at higher levels. If the price turns down and breaks below the 50-day SMA, the pair could drop to $12.13 where buyers may step in.
Contrary to this assumption, if the bulls can sustain the price above $18, the pair could rally to $22.76. A break above this resistance could challenge $26.89. The bulls will have to clear this resistance to resume the uptrend.
OKB/USDTOKEx ( OKB) jumped up from $12.50 on Feb. 19 to an all-time high at $24.74 on April 12, a gain of 98%. However, it was not a one-way move but a roller coaster ride for the investors.
The coin had hit an intraday high at $23.80 on Feb. 22 but it witnessed a sharp fall and dipped to $12 on March 25, losing about 50% from the highs. However, instead of forming a range, the price quickly started a V-shaped recovery.
 OKB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewAlthough the bulls cleared the $23.80 hurdle on April 12, they could not sustain the higher levels. The OKB/USDT pair again witnessed a sharp decline and hit an intraday low at $13.92 on April 18.
The bulls are currently attempting to start a relief rally but have hit a wall at the 20-day EMA ($17.98). This suggests the sentiment has turned negative and traders are selling on rallies. If the price turns down and breaks below $14, the pair could drop to $12.
A break below this level could intensify the selling and the pair could drop to $8. The 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the RSI is just below the midpoint, suggesting a slight advantage to the bears.
This negative view will invalidate if the bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA. Above this resistance, the pair could move up to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $20.60. This level is again likely to act as stiff resistance but if it is scaled the pair could retest $24.74.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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