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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bruwin who wrote (67275)	4/27/2021 10:34:35 AM
From: Ccube	1 Recommendation Recommended By petal Respond to of 78783

I agree I think the next drop in the stock market will be inflation concerns. There are few reasons I think we will drop in mid June to July period. Even as economy/earnings ramp up with vaccination by summer. Inflation is going to go even higher from current levels by summer also. Almost every commodities are making new highs. Second reason is technical....or cyclical....stocks don’t go straight up (most of the time) and by may/June if we make new higher highs it’ll be time for pullback like 10% or more correction which could turn into a potential crash. Looks like commodity play is working out.

To: bruwin who wrote (67275)	4/27/2021 11:00:41 AM
From: petal	Respond to of 78783

Runaway inflation ("inflation tax") seems way more likely than the only other large scale solution: debt cancellation. I'm not too sure that I wan't to own the actual commodity rather than the company taking advantage of it's price movements. For one thing, they (might) pay a dividend and I can make use of the spectacular compound growth effect. To get exposure against commodities' spot prices, I either have to buy the actual thing (inexpedient, though way more real (if real trouble comes, I won't trust any kinds of paper)), or buy a certificate. If I choose the cerificate, I have to pay a fee, not get one (in a form of a dividend) for taking the risk. If the former, I may have to pay for storage, and will probably have to pay higher transaction costs than those paid for stocks. Secondly, the effect might be delayed: oil price, for example, doesn't look too cheap anymore IMO (although still cheap ish); oil co's though, at least in Sweden, do still look attractive and many in the sector(s) surrounding it (tankers, etc) does too.

To: bruwin who wrote (67275)	4/28/2021 2:08:28 PM
From: Coolwire	1 Recommendation Recommended By sjemmeri Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78783

Bruwin, I think as the fed, that inflation will be transitory once supply meets demand. Supply chains took a hit due to covid-19 but assuming we get vaccinations sufficient to stop the disease, supply will respond in due course. I give it a year. I do not subscribe to the view that the Fed is printing money. A good discussion of why is here. How QE Actually Works & Why Inflation Is Transitory - Mark Dow \| Futures Radio Show (anthonycrudele.com). This is a very interesting podcast by a former currency bail out guy who worked in many counties under 3 U.S. Presidents: Mark Dow

To: bruwin who wrote (67275)	4/29/2021 4:16:33 PM
From: bruwin	Respond to of 78783

Hmmmmm .......... Interesting ........ a mere 295% increase over 12 months.