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To: Mary Cluney who wrote (47042)	2/3/1998 1:22:00 PM
From: Joey Smith	Respond to of 186894

Mary, re:Are you being a little too complacent about this? What happens if Compaq doubles than triples Alpha sales in the next two years? And Compaq outlines a migration path to higher performance Alpha's? Mary, I think it comes down to 2 things: software support and price/performance (and these 2 are related) and Merced will have a big advantage over Alpha in both areas. Yes, Windows NT can run on Alpha but the number of appliactions being written for this environment is very small, so it doesn't matter if Alpha could run at 2Ghz imo. Meanwhile, Merced is getting support not only from the NT side, but also from all UNIX vendors. PLUS, Merced will be able to run all x86 appliactions as well. The second reason is price/perf. and it looks like Merced will perform at least on par with Alpha and will be sold at the same or lower prices. The key point is that Merced will be able to ship in volume, while Alpha's market share is flat or will increase slightly. So, from a cost side, merced will win hands down because of volume. I think Paul hit it right on the head with his analysis. I wouldn't worry, imo. Alpha wont die for a while, but its upside is very limited no matter how much weight CPQ throws behind it (and it will be small imo). joey

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (47042)	2/3/1998 1:34:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

Mary - Re: "What happens if Compaq doubles than triples Alpha sales in the next two years? And Compaq outlines a migration path to higher performance Alpha's?" Consider yourself as a current Owner of a DEC - Alpha Server. Three months ago, DEC agreed to sell off the ALpha manufacturing to Intel (DEC keeps the design) and announces that Intel will be the future manufacturer of Alphas. Further, as part of the agreement, DEC agrees to develop new MERCED systems and other IA64 components in support of Intel. So you were probably wondering at that time - what am I gonna do with my Alpha turkey? Its days are numbered and the designer/manufacturer just announced that their major competitor (Intel) would be making the chip and that DEC would be shifting to Merced. Customers aren't stupid. Neither is Compaq. They know that there is no future in the Alpha platform. The overwhelming industry support is behind the Merced. Under these circumstances, how is Compaq going to "sell out of both sides of their mouth"? They can't and won't. Customers see the obvious - Compaq/DEC high end solutions ALL RUN THROUGH INTEL! It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out where Intel is going to put its best efforts. Alpha is on life support. Compaq can keep the life support plugged in for a few years until the new Merceds arrive. Paul