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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (33070)	2/3/1998 1:41:00 PM
From: Jan Crawley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

RE - ATM switch business is lumpy ... Gary: You point is valid. But I thought that orders such as NTT and others are spread out over many quarters and revenue recognized accordingly. Regards, Jan

To: The Phoenix who wrote (33070)	2/3/1998 3:32:00 PM
From: Thomas M.	Respond to of 61433

Here's an independent source: exchange2000.com Tom

To: The Phoenix who wrote (33070)	2/4/1998 1:18:00 AM
From: Gary Korn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Post from the NN thread (see bold): To: Jay Durell (3054 ) From: Stephen Bedingfield Tuesday, Feb 3 1998 11:43PM EST Reply # of 3063 Not sure what NNC will do tomorrow [2/4], but I think there is plenty of downside left. Here's my reasoning. I agree with analysts who peg 1998 est EPS at US$.65. This reflects a US$19.50 stock price using a PE of 30 which in my view is high. Besides UB probs, the biggest prob is low profit margins and declining TDM. There may be some deceleration in ATM growth even through it is up sequentially over last Q2. The statement that ATM revenue rose from 45% to 50% of total revenues doesn't mean anything until we know what the other revenue streams produced. Actually such a percentage rise could be very bad indeed depending on declines in the other revenue streams. The question I have is what is the longer term growth of both the sector and NNC. Is NNC's growth 10%, 15%, 20% (this year it will be a negative growth factor)? I use the following value formula to hunt for intrinsic value: EPS * (growth_rate * 2 + 8.5) * 4.4 / 30_yr_bond Assuming current EPS of US$.65 and 30_yr_bond of 5.86% here are my numbers: 30% Growth = $33.43 25% Growth = $28.55 20% Growth = $23.67 15% Growth = $18.79 10% Growth = $13.91 5% Growth = $ 9.03 0% Growth = $ 4.15 Which growth rate would you chose realistically? Not priced badly if, big IF, you think 15% growth will happen. Personally, I think it will take to the end of 1999 before 15% growth is seen given the rise of ASND, even lower TDM, slowing ATM(?) and if the markets generally turn down further over the next year. All that being said, I like the long term prospects for NNC after they address the profit margin issue and get back on track generally. In short, there is probably plenty of time to wait and see what the direction will be. Next Q and first 2 of 1999 will interesting. stephen (neither long nor short; wanted to go long around $40 but glad I waited)